Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
evidence next quarter recession recovery sector seeing solid start
We'll start seeing solid and significant evidence of recovery in the manufacturing sector in the first quarter next year. It was the first to go into recession and will be the first to come out.
bowls continue fed force full investors punch raising rates ready realize reception rooms soon start
What investors should realize is that the hostesses have been recruited to start removing the punch bowls from all Fed reception rooms and will soon be out full in force and ready to continue raising short-term rates well into 2003.
belief bunker events mentality result retail sales terrible wake weakness
It confirms the belief that the weakness in retail sales was the result of a bunker mentality in the wake of the terrible events of Sept. 11.
alan bank central excuse federal form greenspan markets moved neutral operating raise reality reserve spoke time toward
I think the markets probably overreacted when the Federal Reserve first moved toward a neutral operating directive. When Alan Greenspan spoke this time, I think the reality set in and that is, yes, the central bank has a neutral directive, but it's more like an ultra-right (hawkish) form of neutral directive. ... Any time they get an excuse to raise rates, they're going to take it.
apple bit care core debate fed inflation mean numbers quo running status telling tilt
I think the (PPI and core PPI) numbers will make the Fed a bit more comfortable that the status quo is fine, ... The core PPI is the one they really care about. It's really telling us that the inflation story is not running away from us. That doesn't mean the debate won't be heated. But this number does tilt the apple cart.
action minimize numbers
I think the numbers minimize the probability of any action this year.
challenges confidence consumer continue economy labor market numbers pose quarter serious soft
We still have a labor market that's deteriorating, and today's numbers epitomize that. We're going to continue to see deterioration, which will pose serious challenges to consumer confidence and keep the economy soft for another quarter or two.
conclude current cycle further led
We are led to conclude that the current tightening cycle still has further to go.
coming consumer fourth growth percent rest spending
We're coming off 6 percent consumer spending growth in the fourth quarter, and that's going to moderate. It's not going to collapse, but see we spending in the neighborhood of 2 to 3 percent for the rest of the year.
ahead economic likely pillar provide recovery support view year
This would provide another pillar of support for the view that the economic recovery in the year ahead is likely to be gradual,
data future growth percent possibly prospects quarter third
The prospects of 4 percent real GDP growth (or possibly more after future data revisions) during the third quarter are back on the table,
comments fed interest raise rush
Today's comments will go a long way to dispelling the idea that the Fed is in a rush to raise short-term interest rates.
dismiss overall pervasive silly weakness
The overall weakness was so pervasive that it would be silly to completely dismiss the devastating weakness of this report.
overall progress trend
The overall trend is that we're making progress,