Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
adding boost businesses confidence economic employers employment expansion hire hours people per trying
Businesses have regained confidence in the sustainability of this economic expansion and have started to hire people in earnest. Employers are trying to boost employment by adding more workers, not more hours per worker.
appreciation assuming cuts dollar full inflation percentage strength
For every 10-percent appreciation in the dollar, it cuts inflation by one full percentage point, assuming the strength of the dollar is sustained,
asked best chance december less looks percent traders weeks
Two weeks ago traders thought there was no chance. If you had asked me Thursday, I would have said less than a 50 percent chance (of a December hike), at best I would have said a 50-50 chance. Now it looks pretty likely.
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This is a terrible number. The economic recovery is almost three years old, and the economy should be producing 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month.
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This cut ... won't do much good to perk up economic growth, ... Now, bond yields should be trending up. The Achilles' heel of the economy, business spending, won't be affected much by this cut.
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Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation.
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If the economy turns up by next spring, we should see housing doing better by then, ... Between now and the end of the year will be the worst period for housing.
below economic falling goes growth oil percent potential rate rather talking
If oil goes to $50 a barrel, I think we're talking about 3 percent economic growth, rather than 4 percent growth, possibly. And the jobless rate could actually go up, not down, because the long-term potential economic growth rate is actually 3.5 percent -- we could actually be falling below potential.
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If prices remain where they are, and the rest of the economy performs well, that won't be the end of the world,
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I doubt that, just based on Friday's number, they'll pull the trigger. They'll want to see a sustained period of inflation before they do that.
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Crowding out could become a distinct possibility in the future, pushing up interest rates significantly in 2005 and beyond,
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Argentina is not a potential nightmare. It's a relatively small economy compared to Mexico and Brazil.
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Employment gains really haven't come from full-time workers. They're coming primarily from part-time, temporary help, ... Businesses are still trying to maintain flexibility by not hiring more expensive, full-time workers. That might be one of the reasons why we're seeing an increase in continued claims.
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Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.