Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
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Dollar depreciation is good assuming it is taking place in an orderly manner. The concern is any precipitous plunge. If that were to happen the Fed would have to raise rates significantly.
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This scenario is highly unlikely, but can't be ruled out. The best outcome is a gradual and orderly fall in the value of the dollar improving the trade balance; this is in fact what has been happening.
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The Japanese would argue that they never really intended to bend the trend of the dollar; they were just trying to make sure the dollar depreciated gradually, in an orderly fashion, ... I suspect that's still their game plan.
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Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
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Immediately after the terror attacks, we were shell-shocked and stopped doing everything but watching television,
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The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
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Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.
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Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
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The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.
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I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.
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I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.
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There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, ... The central bank won't raise the interest rate until August or later.
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This was a temporary pause, which has already been reversed in the month of September,
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Customers we talk to are saying they're going to respond to increasing demand, but they won't do anything in anticipation of increasing demand, ... That's why employment, inventories and manufacturing will move in positive directions, but I don't think it will be anything spectacular.