Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
coming confidence cuts gains high job negatives offset remains sales
That's why confidence is important. If it remains healthy, gains in sales will be high enough to offset the negatives coming from job cuts. It's a tug-of-war; right now, job cuts are winning.
close higher number overall somewhat
Probably the overall (CPI) number will be somewhat higher than anticipated, but like PPI, the core-number should be close to forecasts,
confidence consumer consumers economic higher keeping numbers rattle reasons ship spending though
That's one of the reasons why consumers are not going on a spending spree, though they're keeping the economic ship afloat. When higher unemployment numbers come out, that will probably rattle consumer confidence a bit.
affect auto business economy factors fall higher interest lay local people pick rates sales spending start state wrong
But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
best dollar fact fall gradual highly improving orderly outcome ruled scenario trade value
This scenario is highly unlikely, but can't be ruled out. The best outcome is a gradual and orderly fall in the value of the dollar improving the trade balance; this is in fact what has been happening.
businesses demand higher hire hiring increase people production
I don't think businesses will hire more people in anticipation of higher demand. They want to see demand first. They feel they have the flexibility to increase production without hiring people.
accelerate america balance both business capital cause confidence consumer corporate cost desire financial higher hurt loss plans reduced reporting spending strengthen
The loss of confidence in the financial reporting of Corporate America could hurt both consumer and business spending, ... The reduced availability and higher cost of credit, as well as the desire to strengthen the balance sheet, could cause firms to postpone capital spending plans and accelerate layoffs.
affects begin fed future inflation issue monetary months policy rate worry
Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
stopped television terror watching
Immediately after the terror attacks, we were shell-shocked and stopped doing everything but watching television,
bedrock confidence consumer jobs spending
The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
fed might people raising rapidly slowly starts suspect
Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.
consumer employment picture rapid recovery sustained
Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
corporate cuts economic impact months tax until
The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.
bullish holiday people shopping
I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.