Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
businesses capital consumers cost factor final sell waiting
Businesses are going to be waiting and seeing. The most important factor is how consumers behave, ... The cost of capital is important, but in the final analysis, you've got to sell products. If you're not going to sell products, you're not going to need capacity.
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But if things start to go wrong -- if business spending doesn't pick up, or state and local governments lay off more people than anticipated, or auto sales fall off, or interest rates go much higher -- then a combination of these factors would really affect the economy going forward.
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We knew the data collected after the attack was going to be weak, but I was a little dumbfounded by the fact that the numbers even before the attack were awfully weak, ... Even before the attack, the economy seems to have relapsed into the doldrums.
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This scenario is highly unlikely, but can't be ruled out. The best outcome is a gradual and orderly fall in the value of the dollar improving the trade balance; this is in fact what has been happening.
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Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
stopped television terror watching
Immediately after the terror attacks, we were shell-shocked and stopped doing everything but watching television,
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The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
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Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.
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Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
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The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.
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I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.
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I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.
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There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, ... The central bank won't raise the interest rate until August or later.
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This was a temporary pause, which has already been reversed in the month of September,