Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
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This scenario is highly unlikely, but can't be ruled out. The best outcome is a gradual and orderly fall in the value of the dollar improving the trade balance; this is in fact what has been happening.
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Two weeks ago traders thought there was no chance. If you had asked me Thursday, I would have said less than a 50 percent chance (of a December hike), at best I would have said a 50-50 chance. Now it looks pretty likely.
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Our research shows the jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... They have almost perfect correlation.
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The jobless rate is the best indicator of monetary policy, ... The Fed keeps cutting rates as long as the jobless rate goes up. This time around is really no exception.
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Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
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Immediately after the terror attacks, we were shell-shocked and stopped doing everything but watching television,
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The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
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Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.
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Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
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The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.
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I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.
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I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.
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There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, ... The central bank won't raise the interest rate until August or later.
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This was a temporary pause, which has already been reversed in the month of September,