Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
august bank cautious central deviate fed interest policy raise rate reason until
There is no reason for the Fed to deviate away from the cautious policy approach, ... The central bank won't raise the interest rate until August or later.
bank central election employment fall hike inflation interest likely pricing rate wants
Even with significant employment gains, the central bank wants to see more inflation and pricing power. The fall election is another hurdle. No hike in the interest rate is likely in 2004.
bank believe central committee gradual increases interest members monetary pointing rate reducing
The committee members believe that the interest rate is too low, pointing to continuing, gradual increases in the rate. The central bank is reducing accommodation, not tightening monetary policy.
bank central economic interest raising rate risk runs
The central bank runs the risk of raising the interest rate too fast. Historically, the central bank had overreacted to inflationary pressures, contributing to economic recessions.
bank box central change changing economic itself open policy quickly response top
The central bank put itself in a box with the top lid open so that it can change its policy quickly in response to changing economic conditions.
affects begin fed future inflation issue monetary months policy rate worry
Inflation is not an issue right now. However, it could be in the future. The Fed will begin to worry about inflation because monetary policy affects the inflation rate with a lag of as much as 18 months to two years, so they need to worry about it now.
stopped television terror watching
Immediately after the terror attacks, we were shell-shocked and stopped doing everything but watching television,
bedrock confidence consumer jobs spending
The bedrock of consumer spending and confidence is employment. The expectations of more jobs has boosted consumer confidence.
fed might people raising rapidly slowly starts suspect
Once the Fed starts raising rates, I suspect they might go up more rapidly than a lot of people realize. Many of us think the Fed will do things slowly and gradually. In fact, they usually do things pretty quickly.
consumer employment picture rapid recovery sustained
Once the employment picture stabilizes, around midyear, we should see a more rapid and sustained recovery in consumer confidence.
corporate cuts economic impact months tax until
The corporate tax cuts may not have an economic impact until months later.
bullish holiday people shopping
I'm not bullish on the holiday shopping season, but I'm not as bearish as some people have been.
revision sure surprised
I'm not sure we will see a big revision in February; I won't be surprised if we do not.
month temporary
This was a temporary pause, which has already been reversed in the month of September,