Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
activity both consensus economy entering exports figures generally good imports sign slow solid strike
When both exports and imports are surging, that is generally a sign that the economy is in very good shape. These figures strike me as yet another sign that activity entering 2006 was on a solid footing, not about to slow down substantially, as the consensus believes.
appears begun doubt factory last orders sector seen solid year
The factory sector appears to have begun the year on a solid note, no doubt bolstered by the surge in new orders seen at the end of last year.
appears confidence heading labor market reading solid
The labor market appears solid heading into 2006, which could have bolstered the confidence reading in January.
bad corporate economy good inflation investors margins profit stock thinking
What stock investors probably need to be thinking about now is 'what are profit margins doing?'. A little inflation wouldn't be so bad for the stock market, for Corporate America, but it wouldn't be good for the economy or the consumer.
costs currently expect fed gains growth labor market pick piece points puzzle toward unit
We expect productivity growth to moderate, and compensation gains and unit labor costs to pick up. Just another piece of the puzzle that points toward more Fed tightening than the market currently expects.
economy extent fed market maybe people perceive slowing statement stock stop
The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
explosive pace quarter second sets stage swing third
The still-massive swing in the pace of stockpiling in the second quarter sets the stage for an explosive third quarter.
bit focus represent shift
It would represent a bit of a shift from a macroeconomic focus to a banking/regulation focus.
anecdotal average earnings evidence fed growth labor officials picking pressures remain suggesting unit wage
Fed officials will remain watchful for a reacceleration in unit labor costs, especially with anecdotal evidence and an upturn in average hourly earnings growth suggesting that wage pressures may be picking up.
clear concerns core fears fed inflation measures officials outlook present prices related
Fed officials have made clear that their heightened inflation concerns are related more to the outlook than the present situation. Thus, inflation fears have intensified even as core measures of prices have been exceedingly well behaved.
afraid chicken demand game happen holiday might nobody risk short traders wanting wants week
There's a game of chicken going on with traders wanting to go short but too afraid of month-end demand to risk it. Anyway, nobody wants to be short in a holiday week when anything might happen geopolitically.
caused faster fed grow hours job labor losses modest officials remain rises since unit worked
Productivity rises could be more modest going forward, since hours worked should grow faster as job losses caused by the hurricanes are reversed. Fed officials will remain watchful of a reacceleration in unit labor costs.
fed momentum reasons robust speaks underlying
This speaks to very robust underlying momentum in the economy, which is one of the reasons why the Fed will have to keep going.
track
We are still on track for a blowout quarter.