Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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We expect productivity growth to moderate, and compensation gains and unit labor costs to pick up. Just another piece of the puzzle that points toward more Fed tightening than the market currently expects.
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The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
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Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
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But certainly the market should be focused on the core number, since that's what the Fed looks at. We're looking for an 0.2 percent increase, which wouldn't cause a big reaction in the market.
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We think the economy will grow stronger for longer than the market and the Fed do. We look for substantial further tightening to be required.
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The minutes kind of fed into the sentiment in the market right now that the Fed is closer to done. The minutes threw lighter fuel on that one.
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I think the next really big number for the market is next Friday's retail sales figures. Up until Friday, investors are going to be focused on oil prices, the earnings, and to an extent, the election.
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A lot of people were hoping June was a fluke and that employment would bounce back, but two in a row is pretty tough to write off. I think market investors are now more worried about the corporate and economic outlook.
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Oil is playing a positive role for stocks and the bond market today. Also, the markets are coming off a rough stretch, which makes this bounce pretty understandable.
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A few weeks ago, the market was looking for a hike in March and May, but there have been some data points recently that have thrown May into question.
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If the economy keeps growing at a faster pace, the Fed may need to boost rates for longer than what markets are currently expecting. I think that's what the stock and bond markets are reacting to right now.
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The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
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The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer.
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The labor market appears solid heading into 2006, which could have bolstered the confidence reading in January.