Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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A few weeks ago, the market was looking for a hike in March and May, but there have been some data points recently that have thrown May into question.
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The bottom line is that, excluding the hurricane, to the best that we can tell, job growth continues to be good, as was made clear by the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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Oil is playing a positive role for stocks and the bond market today. Also, the markets are coming off a rough stretch, which makes this bounce pretty understandable.
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The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
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The still-massive swing in the pace of stockpiling in the second quarter sets the stage for an explosive third quarter.
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Productivity rises could be more modest going forward, since hours worked should grow faster as job losses caused by the hurricanes are reversed. Fed officials will remain watchful of a reacceleration in unit labor costs.
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One-year inflation expectations spiked from 3.1 percent to 4.6 percent, by far the highest reading since 1990,
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But certainly the market should be focused on the core number, since that's what the Fed looks at. We're looking for an 0.2 percent increase, which wouldn't cause a big reaction in the market.
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Barring an abrupt weakening in the economy, the Fed will continue to hike rates at a measured pace for the foreseeable future.
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If inflation doesn't accelerate much from here, and the Fed just raises rates a little more, we might see something like the end of the 1990s again. But if the Fed has to really ramp up to fight inflation, it's going to be a much worse environment than investors realize.
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The factory sector appears to have begun the year on a solid note, no doubt bolstered by the surge in new orders seen at the end of last year.
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A stronger-than-expected payroll figure may lead a lot of analysts and investors to rethink their views on the
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The report follows the recent pattern of strong growth and no inflation.
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The relatively moderate figures for current conditions should be weighed to some degree against robust expectations for the six-month outlook.