Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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While housing demand will probably continue to moderate from the torrid pace seen in the last few years, housing starts should remain well-supported in the coming months, as builders' backlogs remain near record levels and rebuilding along the Gulf Coast will eventually boost activity.
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Barring an abrupt weakening in the economy, the Fed will continue to hike rates at a measured pace for the foreseeable future.
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The overall manufacturing sector is doing OK with the exception of autos. We continue to see recovery in the industries that were hit by the hurricanes, and then on top of all that it was a cold December.
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Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
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The bottom line is that, excluding the hurricane, to the best that we can tell, job growth continues to be good, as was made clear by the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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Consumer spending numbers continue to be very good and manufacturing continues to surprise to the upside, which all suggests the economy has a lot of momentum right now.
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The economy has a lot of momentum. The consumer continues to do well because of the improving labor market, and businesses have a lot of cash and are getting more confident about deploying it.
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The case for continued rate hikes has become, if anything, more compelling since Katrina.
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The FOMC minutes provided further affirmation to a bond market that continues to see the glass as half full.
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This report is huge in the big picture, ... With the election over and this good news on jobs we could at last see an unleashing of animal spirits in the economy.
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When both exports and imports are surging, that is generally a sign that the economy is in very good shape. These figures strike me as yet another sign that activity entering 2006 was on a solid footing, not about to slow down substantially, as the consensus believes.
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We think the economy will grow stronger for longer than the market and the Fed do. We look for substantial further tightening to be required.
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The question now is what impact the hurricane has on the economy and for how long.
attention decline
What really got everyone's attention was the decline in the unemployment rate.