Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
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Barring an abrupt weakening in the economy, the Fed will continue to hike rates at a measured pace for the foreseeable future.
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While housing demand will probably continue to moderate from the torrid pace seen in the last few years, housing starts should remain well-supported in the coming months, as builders' backlogs remain near record levels and rebuilding along the Gulf Coast will eventually boost activity.
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Consumer spending numbers continue to be very good and manufacturing continues to surprise to the upside, which all suggests the economy has a lot of momentum right now.
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The overall manufacturing sector is doing OK with the exception of autos. We continue to see recovery in the industries that were hit by the hurricanes, and then on top of all that it was a cold December.
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The bottom line is that, excluding the hurricane, to the best that we can tell, job growth continues to be good, as was made clear by the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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The economy has a lot of momentum. The consumer continues to do well because of the improving labor market, and businesses have a lot of cash and are getting more confident about deploying it.
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The case for continued rate hikes has become, if anything, more compelling since Katrina.
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The FOMC minutes provided further affirmation to a bond market that continues to see the glass as half full.
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What stock investors probably need to be thinking about now is 'what are profit margins doing?'. A little inflation wouldn't be so bad for the stock market, for Corporate America, but it wouldn't be good for the economy or the consumer.
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We expect productivity growth to moderate, and compensation gains and unit labor costs to pick up. Just another piece of the puzzle that points toward more Fed tightening than the market currently expects.
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The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
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The still-massive swing in the pace of stockpiling in the second quarter sets the stage for an explosive third quarter.
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It would represent a bit of a shift from a macroeconomic focus to a banking/regulation focus.