Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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We still do not look for the core CPI to accelerate rapidly, but it is likely to be persistently firmer going forward. At a minimum, core consumer price inflation will be firm enough to keep the Fed on edge and raising interest rates.
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There is more bad news to come in May. Gasoline will be up sharply, and tobacco will be up.
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The question is, How much of this feeds through all the way down the production process? Do companies end up having to swallow the cost increases or can they pass it through?
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The overall manufacturing sector is doing OK with the exception of autos. We continue to see recovery in the industries that were hit by the hurricanes, and then on top of all that it was a cold December.
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We know that a flood of Katrina-related claims is coming. The magnitude and the timing are uncertain, but the figures will clearly be boosted sharply very soon.
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We are seeing some improvement in foreign economies, but the imports are just so much bigger than exports you would have to have a big slowdown in U.S. demand to really make a difference. I don't expect to see any big improvement in the near term.
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A lot of people were hoping June was a fluke and that employment would bounce back, but two in a row is pretty tough to write off. I think market investors are now more worried about the corporate and economic outlook.
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The relatively moderate figures for current conditions should be weighed to some degree against robust expectations for the six-month outlook.
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There is sufficient upbeat news on the economy to convince the FOMC to tighten. If the economy warrants a rate hike, the Fed would be doing a great service by delivering.
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A stronger-than-expected payroll figure may lead a lot of analysts and investors to rethink their views on the
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The report follows the recent pattern of strong growth and no inflation.
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The bottom line is that, excluding the hurricane, to the best that we can tell, job growth continues to be good, as was made clear by the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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Oil is playing a positive role for stocks and the bond market today. Also, the markets are coming off a rough stretch, which makes this bounce pretty understandable.
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A few weeks ago, the market was looking for a hike in March and May, but there have been some data points recently that have thrown May into question.