Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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Clearly, reports of the housing market's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
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Clearly, Fed officials are more worried about the threatening things that they see (energy spike, eroding slack, etc.) than the benign core consumer price index readings.
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In terms of monetary policy right now, most people expect the Fed to tighten during the next two or three meetings, but it's foggy beyond that. Greenspan didn't really say much to clarify, either in his comments or in the question period. He was appropriately non-committal, and so there's been little reaction from stocks.
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I just don't think the consumer is going to roll over on the back of a cooling sector.
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The best way to summarize the message is
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It's certainly an interesting time as we bump up against levels we haven't seen in quite some time.
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The bottom line is that, excluding the hurricane, to the best that we can tell, job growth continues to be good, as was made clear by the upward revisions to the previous two months.
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It is still far too soon to say how the economy will respond to Katrina, but so far, so good. Things are improving so far about as quickly as could be expected.
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It would represent a bit of a shift from a macroeconomic focus to a banking/regulation focus.
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The relatively moderate figures for current conditions should be weighed to some degree against robust expectations for the six-month outlook.
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There is sufficient upbeat news on the economy to convince the FOMC to tighten. If the economy warrants a rate hike, the Fed would be doing a great service by delivering.
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The numbers were considerably more moderate than we and others had expected. We have gotten back to pre-hurricane numbers. (But), I don't view this as the beginning of a sustained downturn.
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The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.
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The big picture for the consumer still looks good.