Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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Gasoline prices are coming off nicely in February, so the Michigan figure is almost certain to rise within the next month or two.
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This report is huge in the big picture, ... With the election over and this good news on jobs we could at last see an unleashing of animal spirits in the economy.
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When both exports and imports are surging, that is generally a sign that the economy is in very good shape. These figures strike me as yet another sign that activity entering 2006 was on a solid footing, not about to slow down substantially, as the consensus believes.
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We think the economy will grow stronger for longer than the market and the Fed do. We look for substantial further tightening to be required.
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We have been quite skeptical throughout January because data tend to be erratic around the holidays and the turn of the year.
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The question now is what impact the hurricane has on the economy and for how long.
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While housing demand will probably continue to moderate from the torrid pace seen in the last few years, housing starts should remain well-supported in the coming months, as builders' backlogs remain near record levels and rebuilding along the Gulf Coast will eventually boost activity.
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When the economy's weak, there's always a potential competitor who will undercut you on price, but when everybody's doing decent business, there's not as much urgency on the pricing front. When consumers are mostly employed and their incomes are going up, they're more inclined to accept some price increases.
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We still do not look for the core CPI to accelerate rapidly, but it is likely to be persistently firmer going forward. At a minimum, core consumer price inflation will be firm enough to keep the Fed on edge and raising interest rates.
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There is more bad news to come in May. Gasoline will be up sharply, and tobacco will be up.
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We are seeing some improvement in foreign economies, but the imports are just so much bigger than exports you would have to have a big slowdown in U.S. demand to really make a difference. I don't expect to see any big improvement in the near term.
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The overall manufacturing sector is doing OK with the exception of autos. We continue to see recovery in the industries that were hit by the hurricanes, and then on top of all that it was a cold December.
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The question is, How much of this feeds through all the way down the production process? Do companies end up having to swallow the cost increases or can they pass it through?
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If it didn't happen in the first quarter, it's going to have to happen at some point. If consumer spending or investment spending was a lot weaker than expected, it'd be a lot more troublesome.