Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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January auto sales were clearly much better than expected. We are on a pace to see a month-to-month increase in the seasonally adjusted sales pace, perhaps to around 17.7 million units or so.
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Ironically, with all this strength, the net effect of these data on the fourth-quarter GDP number could be flat or possibly even marginally negative. This is because durable goods inventories were flat, which should more or less offset the positive influence of the stronger-than-anticipated December shipments figures. For first quarter GDP, however, these data are unambiguously positive.
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Katrina is a little bit different because you're also threatening the energy system. We're still trying to figure out exactly where we are on that. The near-term implications are pretty extreme.
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It is never a happy day for the Fed when GDP is revised down and inflation is revised up.
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If it didn't happen in the first quarter, it's going to have to happen at some point. If consumer spending or investment spending was a lot weaker than expected, it'd be a lot more troublesome.
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If what we see in these surveys is truly the case, then there will be a clash in the boardroom as these two decide how best to move the company forward.
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If the economy keeps growing at a faster pace, the Fed may need to boost rates for longer than what markets are currently expecting. I think that's what the stock and bond markets are reacting to right now.
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Some of the strength in building permits and claims may be weather-related and so this number probably won't be repeated, but there's been a strong recovery in the index since the hurricanes and by and large we're seeing that in the economy as a whole.
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I just don't think the consumer is going to roll over on the back of a cooling sector.
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Clearly, reports of the housing market's demise have been greatly exaggerated.
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Clearly, Fed officials are more worried about the threatening things that they see (energy spike, eroding slack, etc.) than the benign core consumer price index readings.
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The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
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The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer.
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The labor market appears solid heading into 2006, which could have bolstered the confidence reading in January.