Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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It's certainly an interesting time as we bump up against levels we haven't seen in quite some time.
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We know from low inventory levels that they're going to have to rebuild inventories as economy strengthens,
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While housing demand will probably continue to moderate from the torrid pace seen in the last few years, housing starts should remain well-supported in the coming months, as builders' backlogs remain near record levels and rebuilding along the Gulf Coast will eventually boost activity.
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The levels in July were too high for the reality of what is truly going on in manufacturing. The move back in August is to a more realistic level.
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The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.
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The big picture for the consumer still looks good.
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The best way to summarize the message is
backup funds market means rate reflect surprised yields
Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
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The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.
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The Fed can not be comfortable with the pace at which the labor market is moving to/through full employment. Let the wage acceleration begin!
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The consumer never really missed a beat, and now attitudes are beginning to catch up to reality. Once again, watch what they do, not what they say.
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The consumer is doing quite well. The job market is doing quite well.
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The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
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The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer.