Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
fed full labor market moving pace wage
The Fed can not be comfortable with the pace at which the labor market is moving to/through full employment. Let the wage acceleration begin!
explosive pace quarter second sets stage swing third
The still-massive swing in the pace of stockpiling in the second quarter sets the stage for an explosive third quarter.
continue fed hike measured pace rates
Barring an abrupt weakening in the economy, the Fed will continue to hike rates at a measured pace for the foreseeable future.
along boost coast coming continue demand eventually few gulf housing last levels moderate near pace rebuilding record remain seen starts
While housing demand will probably continue to moderate from the torrid pace seen in the last few years, housing starts should remain well-supported in the coming months, as builders' backlogs remain near record levels and rebuilding along the Gulf Coast will eventually boost activity.
adjusted auto clearly increase january million pace perhaps sales
January auto sales were clearly much better than expected. We are on a pace to see a month-to-month increase in the seasonally adjusted sales pace, perhaps to around 17.7 million units or so.
above begin build economy fully gradually growing inflation labor markets pace pressures product slack trend
The economy is still growing at an above trend pace and with slack in labor and product markets all but fully absorbed, inflation pressures will begin to gradually build this year.
basically basis driven economic oil percentage picture points prices stocks surprises whether wiggle yields
The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.
consumer looks picture
The big picture for the consumer still looks good.
best message summarize
The best way to summarize the message is
backup funds market means rate reflect surprised yields
Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
beyond course data doubts fed monetary neutral rates somewhat supports totally view
The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.
attitudes beginning catch consumer missed watch
The consumer never really missed a beat, and now attitudes are beginning to catch up to reality. Once again, watch what they do, not what they say.
consumer job market quite
The consumer is doing quite well. The job market is doing quite well.
against bump certainly levels quite seen time
It's certainly an interesting time as we bump up against levels we haven't seen in quite some time.