Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
backup funds market means rate reflect surprised yields
Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
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The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.
consumer looks picture
The big picture for the consumer still looks good.
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The best way to summarize the message is
beyond course data doubts fed monetary neutral rates somewhat supports totally view
The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.
fed full labor market moving pace wage
The Fed can not be comfortable with the pace at which the labor market is moving to/through full employment. Let the wage acceleration begin!
attitudes beginning catch consumer missed watch
The consumer never really missed a beat, and now attitudes are beginning to catch up to reality. Once again, watch what they do, not what they say.
consumer job market quite
The consumer is doing quite well. The job market is doing quite well.
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It's certainly an interesting time as we bump up against levels we haven't seen in quite some time.
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The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.
economic growth income labor market sustain
The labor market is the linchpin of our economic forecasts, because income growth is going to sustain the consumer.
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The labor market appears solid heading into 2006, which could have bolstered the confidence reading in January.
definitely jobs numbers soft stocks
The jobs numbers were definitely on the soft side, and so stocks are down.
change growth handle inventory likely quarter rather
The inventory change now suggests growth this quarter is likely to have a 3.0 handle on it rather than 4.0.