Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
beyond course data doubts fed monetary neutral rates somewhat supports totally view
The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.
data few hike looking march market points recently thrown weeks
A few weeks ago, the market was looking for a hike in March and May, but there have been some data points recently that have thrown May into question.
data erratic holidays january quite skeptical tend throughout turn
We have been quite skeptical throughout January because data tend to be erratic around the holidays and the turn of the year.
data december durable effect flat goods influence less net number offset positive possibly quarter shipments strength
Ironically, with all this strength, the net effect of these data on the fourth-quarter GDP number could be flat or possibly even marginally negative. This is because durable goods inventories were flat, which should more or less offset the positive influence of the stronger-than-anticipated December shipments figures. For first quarter GDP, however, these data are unambiguously positive.
continued convince data hikes march market primarily rate recipe report softness sounds
Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
calendar data indication move number point poised prior range reaching settling
However, we are reaching a point on the calendar when the data should be settling down and there is no indication that the number of new filers is poised to move back to the 310,000 to 340,000 range that prevailed in 2005 prior to the hurricanes.
basically basis driven economic oil percentage picture points prices stocks surprises whether wiggle yields
The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.
consumer looks picture
The big picture for the consumer still looks good.
best message summarize
The best way to summarize the message is
backup funds market means rate reflect surprised yields
Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
fed full labor market moving pace wage
The Fed can not be comfortable with the pace at which the labor market is moving to/through full employment. Let the wage acceleration begin!
attitudes beginning catch consumer missed watch
The consumer never really missed a beat, and now attitudes are beginning to catch up to reality. Once again, watch what they do, not what they say.
consumer job market quite
The consumer is doing quite well. The job market is doing quite well.
against bump certainly levels quite seen time
It's certainly an interesting time as we bump up against levels we haven't seen in quite some time.