Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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We have been quite skeptical throughout January because data tend to be erratic around the holidays and the turn of the year.
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Ironically, with all this strength, the net effect of these data on the fourth-quarter GDP number could be flat or possibly even marginally negative. This is because durable goods inventories were flat, which should more or less offset the positive influence of the stronger-than-anticipated December shipments figures. For first quarter GDP, however, these data are unambiguously positive.
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Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
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The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.
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A few weeks ago, the market was looking for a hike in March and May, but there have been some data points recently that have thrown May into question.
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However, we are reaching a point on the calendar when the data should be settling down and there is no indication that the number of new filers is poised to move back to the 310,000 to 340,000 range that prevailed in 2005 prior to the hurricanes.
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While housing demand will probably continue to moderate from the torrid pace seen in the last few years, housing starts should remain well-supported in the coming months, as builders' backlogs remain near record levels and rebuilding along the Gulf Coast will eventually boost activity.
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This report is huge in the big picture, ... With the election over and this good news on jobs we could at last see an unleashing of animal spirits in the economy.
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When both exports and imports are surging, that is generally a sign that the economy is in very good shape. These figures strike me as yet another sign that activity entering 2006 was on a solid footing, not about to slow down substantially, as the consensus believes.
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We think the economy will grow stronger for longer than the market and the Fed do. We look for substantial further tightening to be required.
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The question now is what impact the hurricane has on the economy and for how long.
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What really got everyone's attention was the decline in the unemployment rate.
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We expect productivity growth to moderate, and compensation gains and unit labor costs to pick up. Just another piece of the puzzle that points toward more Fed tightening than the market currently expects.
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This speaks to very robust underlying momentum in the economy, which is one of the reasons why the Fed will have to keep going.