Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
accept competitor consumers decent employed inclined mostly potential price pricing urgency
When the economy's weak, there's always a potential competitor who will undercut you on price, but when everybody's doing decent business, there's not as much urgency on the pricing front. When consumers are mostly employed and their incomes are going up, they're more inclined to accept some price increases.
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Consumer spending numbers continue to be very good and manufacturing continues to surprise to the upside, which all suggests the economy has a lot of momentum right now.
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The big picture for the consumer still looks good.
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We still do not look for the core CPI to accelerate rapidly, but it is likely to be persistently firmer going forward. At a minimum, core consumer price inflation will be firm enough to keep the Fed on edge and raising interest rates.
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If it didn't happen in the first quarter, it's going to have to happen at some point. If consumer spending or investment spending was a lot weaker than expected, it'd be a lot more troublesome.
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I just don't think the consumer is going to roll over on the back of a cooling sector.
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Clearly, Fed officials are more worried about the threatening things that they see (energy spike, eroding slack, etc.) than the benign core consumer price index readings.
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The consumer never really missed a beat, and now attitudes are beginning to catch up to reality. Once again, watch what they do, not what they say.
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The consumer is doing quite well. The job market is doing quite well.
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The economy is clearly strong right now, and that's what these numbers reflect. In the short term, there's a risk people will pull back on spending, but that depends on how long gas prices stay high, and so far there's not much evidence the consumer is slowing down.
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The economy has a lot of momentum. The consumer continues to do well because of the improving labor market, and businesses have a lot of cash and are getting more confident about deploying it.
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What stock investors probably need to be thinking about now is 'what are profit margins doing?'. A little inflation wouldn't be so bad for the stock market, for Corporate America, but it wouldn't be good for the economy or the consumer.
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We expect productivity growth to moderate, and compensation gains and unit labor costs to pick up. Just another piece of the puzzle that points toward more Fed tightening than the market currently expects.
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The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.