Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
economy extent fed market maybe people perceive slowing statement stock stop
The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
activity both consensus economy entering exports figures generally good imports sign slow solid strike
When both exports and imports are surging, that is generally a sign that the economy is in very good shape. These figures strike me as yet another sign that activity entering 2006 was on a solid footing, not about to slow down substantially, as the consensus believes.
clearly consumer depends economy evidence far gas numbers people prices pull risk short slowing stay strong
The economy is clearly strong right now, and that's what these numbers reflect. In the short term, there's a risk people will pull back on spending, but that depends on how long gas prices stay high, and so far there's not much evidence the consumer is slowing down.
advancing clearly economy funds nicely rate slow view
The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.
basically basis driven economic oil percentage picture points prices stocks surprises whether wiggle yields
The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.
consumer looks picture
The big picture for the consumer still looks good.
best message summarize
The best way to summarize the message is
backup funds market means rate reflect surprised yields
Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
beyond course data doubts fed monetary neutral rates somewhat supports totally view
The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.
fed full labor market moving pace wage
The Fed can not be comfortable with the pace at which the labor market is moving to/through full employment. Let the wage acceleration begin!
attitudes beginning catch consumer missed watch
The consumer never really missed a beat, and now attitudes are beginning to catch up to reality. Once again, watch what they do, not what they say.
consumer job market quite
The consumer is doing quite well. The job market is doing quite well.
against bump certainly levels quite seen time
It's certainly an interesting time as we bump up against levels we haven't seen in quite some time.
advancing both cash households jobs labor market means nice plenty support wages
The labor market is very healthy, with both jobs and wages advancing at a nice clip. This means that households will have plenty of cash to support consumption in 2006.