Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
bad corporate economy good inflation investors margins profit stock thinking
What stock investors probably need to be thinking about now is 'what are profit margins doing?'. A little inflation wouldn't be so bad for the stock market, for Corporate America, but it wouldn't be good for the economy or the consumer.
accelerate environment fed fight inflation investors might raises ramp rates worse
If inflation doesn't accelerate much from here, and the Fed just raises rates a little more, we might see something like the end of the 1990s again. But if the Fed has to really ramp up to fight inflation, it's going to be a much worse environment than investors realize.
figure investors lead payroll rethink views
A stronger-than-expected payroll figure may lead a lot of analysts and investors to rethink their views on the
bounce corporate economic employment fluke hoping investors june market people row tough worried
A lot of people were hoping June was a fluke and that employment would bounce back, but two in a row is pretty tough to write off. I think market investors are now more worried about the corporate and economic outlook.
consumer happen investment spending weaker
If it didn't happen in the first quarter, it's going to have to happen at some point. If consumer spending or investment spending was a lot weaker than expected, it'd be a lot more troublesome.
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I think the next really big number for the market is next Friday's retail sales figures. Up until Friday, investors are going to be focused on oil prices, the earnings, and to an extent, the election.
business equipment heading invest meet software spending
Heading into 2006, the fundamentals for business spending in equipment and software look solid. Firms will need to invest more to meet demand.
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The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.
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The big picture for the consumer still looks good.
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The best way to summarize the message is
backup funds market means rate reflect surprised yields
Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
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The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.
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The Fed can not be comfortable with the pace at which the labor market is moving to/through full employment. Let the wage acceleration begin!
attitudes beginning catch consumer missed watch
The consumer never really missed a beat, and now attitudes are beginning to catch up to reality. Once again, watch what they do, not what they say.