Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
data few hike looking march market points recently thrown weeks
A few weeks ago, the market was looking for a hike in March and May, but there have been some data points recently that have thrown May into question.
continue fed hike measured pace rates
Barring an abrupt weakening in the economy, the Fed will continue to hike rates at a measured pace for the foreseeable future.
continued convince data hikes march market primarily rate recipe report softness sounds
Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.
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The idea that the Federal Reserve is close to being done with interest rate hikes has certainly benefited the bond market, and stocks have benefited as well.
case compelling continued hikes rate since
The case for continued rate hikes has become, if anything, more compelling since Katrina.
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The big picture is still that 10-year yields are up 100 basis points (1 percentage point) in basically a month, so to see a 5- or 10-basis-point pullback is not a big deal. It's just a wiggle on the charts, ... You will get wiggles here and there, and whether it's driven by surprises in economic data, or in geopolitics, oil prices or stocks is anyone's guess.
consumer looks picture
The big picture for the consumer still looks good.
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The best way to summarize the message is
backup funds market means rate reflect surprised yields
Not only will the market be surprised if we get to a 4.25 funds rate at the end of year, but 4.25 is by no means going to be the end. You're going to see a significant backup in yields to reflect that.
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The Fed will have to take rates beyond neutral to a somewhat restrictive pace. Today's data totally supports that view of the world and should...eliminate any doubts about the near-term course of monetary policy.
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The Fed can not be comfortable with the pace at which the labor market is moving to/through full employment. Let the wage acceleration begin!
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The consumer never really missed a beat, and now attitudes are beginning to catch up to reality. Once again, watch what they do, not what they say.
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The consumer is doing quite well. The job market is doing quite well.
against bump certainly levels quite seen time
It's certainly an interesting time as we bump up against levels we haven't seen in quite some time.