Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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Productivity rises could be more modest going forward, since hours worked should grow faster as job losses caused by the hurricanes are reversed. Fed officials will remain watchful of a reacceleration in unit labor costs.
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If the economy keeps growing at a faster pace, the Fed may need to boost rates for longer than what markets are currently expecting. I think that's what the stock and bond markets are reacting to right now.
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What stock investors probably need to be thinking about now is 'what are profit margins doing?'. A little inflation wouldn't be so bad for the stock market, for Corporate America, but it wouldn't be good for the economy or the consumer.
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We expect productivity growth to moderate, and compensation gains and unit labor costs to pick up. Just another piece of the puzzle that points toward more Fed tightening than the market currently expects.
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The stock market has been pretty stubbornly hewing to the idea that the economy is slowing down and the Fed may stop soon. So to the extent that people perceive the statement as a little more hawkish, it's maybe upsetting.
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The still-massive swing in the pace of stockpiling in the second quarter sets the stage for an explosive third quarter.
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It would represent a bit of a shift from a macroeconomic focus to a banking/regulation focus.
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Fed officials will remain watchful for a reacceleration in unit labor costs, especially with anecdotal evidence and an upturn in average hourly earnings growth suggesting that wage pressures may be picking up.
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Fed officials have made clear that their heightened inflation concerns are related more to the outlook than the present situation. Thus, inflation fears have intensified even as core measures of prices have been exceedingly well behaved.
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There's a game of chicken going on with traders wanting to go short but too afraid of month-end demand to risk it. Anyway, nobody wants to be short in a holiday week when anything might happen geopolitically.
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This speaks to very robust underlying momentum in the economy, which is one of the reasons why the Fed will have to keep going.
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We are still on track for a blowout quarter.
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It is definitely clear that (housing) is one area where you will see less growth,
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Today's report should convince most market participants that the March softness in the data was primarily a one-month phenomenon. Sounds like a recipe for continued 25 basis-point rate hikes for the foreseeable future.