Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
average deal earning economic great indicator labor market pain people prices record
The labor market is very healthy. The most important economic indicator for the average person is their job. As long as people are working, they're earning and that's offsetting a great deal of the pain from record prices at the pump.
aware fed federal fully funds higher increasing official oil prices recession since
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
backlash prices pump record seen until
Up until now, we haven't seen any backlash to record prices at the pump from consumers, but now the story is changing,
certainly federal higher perception policy prices problem raising reserve seems tea
As long as there is a perception that higher prices are in the tea leaves, that's a problem certainly for policy makers. And I think that's why the Federal Reserve seems hellbent on raising rates.
ahead anticipate companies elevated energy higher hire imagine prices
I can't imagine that these energy prices aren't elevated through the winter. We anticipate even higher prices. Companies don't want to hire ahead of uncertainty.
expecting fed higher ill inflation looks onward prices quick rate
Higher prices are back, which bodes ill for those expecting a quick end to Fed rate hikes. It looks like inflation is going onward and upward in the first quarter.
consumers energy high prices pulling time
I don't think these high energy prices are going away any time soon. Consumers are pulling back.
along amount consequences creating decent economic economy energy hurdles hurricane indeed lie number path prices prosperity record
The economy is motoring along and we are indeed creating more than a decent amount of jobs. But there are a number of hurdles that lie in our path of prosperity ? record energy prices and the economic consequences of Hurricane Katrina.
inflation pressures subdued
Inflation pressures are rising, but at a subdued pace.
along cannot economic generally increased inflation pass periods problem producers simply
Inflation is not a problem and generally isn't during periods of economic weakness, ... This is simply because producers cannot pass along increased prices.
convinced previous recovery smooth
I'm not at all convinced this recovery we're having is going to be as smooth as we've had in previous recoveries.
creation fed foot increasing job problem signs stellar
The big problem now is what does the Fed do with this. How does the Fed take the foot off the brake when you have stellar job creation and signs of increasing inflation?
along companies conference earnings fingers general listening people sentiment tone trigger
The sentiment I get from the Beige Book, along with listening to quarterly earnings conference calls, and just the general tone of my conversations with people who have their fingers on the trigger of hiring, say companies are just not doing much of it.
behind creation job labor likely movements next roses worst year
It's not all roses in the labor market. I think the worst is behind us, but we're more likely to have flat, or sideways, movements in job creation for the next year, year and a half.