Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
along companies conference earnings fingers general listening people sentiment tone trigger
The sentiment I get from the Beige Book, along with listening to quarterly earnings conference calls, and just the general tone of my conversations with people who have their fingers on the trigger of hiring, say companies are just not doing much of it.
ahead anticipate companies elevated energy higher hire imagine prices
I can't imagine that these energy prices aren't elevated through the winter. We anticipate even higher prices. Companies don't want to hire ahead of uncertainty.
companies hiring holiday last less retailers
Retailers and construction companies just weren't hiring last month. Retailers did less hiring this holiday season.
inflation pressures subdued
Inflation pressures are rising, but at a subdued pace.
along cannot economic generally increased inflation pass periods problem producers simply
Inflation is not a problem and generally isn't during periods of economic weakness, ... This is simply because producers cannot pass along increased prices.
convinced previous recovery smooth
I'm not at all convinced this recovery we're having is going to be as smooth as we've had in previous recoveries.
creation fed foot increasing job problem signs stellar
The big problem now is what does the Fed do with this. How does the Fed take the foot off the brake when you have stellar job creation and signs of increasing inflation?
behind creation job labor likely movements next roses worst year
It's not all roses in the labor market. I think the worst is behind us, but we're more likely to have flat, or sideways, movements in job creation for the next year, year and a half.
afford anyone subject
It's not a subject that anyone can afford to fail.
advancing afford economy err fed inflation mistake overdoing pause refrain side
The Fed may pause ... but I think that would be a mistake. With the economy advancing at such a torrid pace, the Fed can afford to err on the side of overdoing it. ... The mistake would be to refrain from combating inflation pressures.
drop economy economy-and-economics february losing numbers retail sales sign simply
The February drop in retail sales is not a sign that the economy is losing momentum. It is simply a payback for extraordinary numbers in January.
average deal earning economic great indicator labor market pain people prices record
The labor market is very healthy. The most important economic indicator for the average person is their job. As long as people are working, they're earning and that's offsetting a great deal of the pain from record prices at the pump.
economy fed hikes hit market measured move pace soft
The Fed is going to move at its gradual, measured pace because we've hit an oil-induced soft patch, ... Fifty-basis-point hikes are not right when the economy is skittish and market is jittery about oil.
aware fed federal fully funds higher increasing official oil prices recession since
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.