Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
broader consumer damage economy economy-and-economics energy higher job numbers oil prices spending unless weaker weather
So far, the surge in oil prices has yet to do any significant damage to the broader economy. We may see some softening in the consumer spending numbers soon, but unless that translates into a weaker job market, the economy should be able to weather these higher energy prices.
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Consumer spending growth will moderate, but it won't impede the current pace of economic expansion.
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People are able to pull money out of their homes and put it into their gas tanks. So the overall effects on consumer spending have been small.
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You are going to spend more to drive your car and to heat your home.
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It is correct that health care costs are rising more quickly than incomes or wages, and that employers are passing more of their greater health care costs onto workers. But the increase in health care spending is not greater than the increase in incomes or wages.
forward harder living maintain spending
Going forward it will be harder for them to maintain their spending - and their living standards.
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The economy is going to be hit hard by Katrina, and it is going to be hardest on consumers who are already stretched thin. With the surge in gasoline and home heating oil prices, consumers will have a difficult choice to make between filling their gas tank or spending on other things.
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In Florida, people are moving up the coast
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Inflation is still low and modest, but there are growing signs that it is starting to pick up.
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It's similar to asking a big part of the labor force to leave. In today's economy where the job market is at capacity, asking people to leave means the economy will not grow as fast. In fact, there could be a very difficult adjustment over the first three to four years when this process is in full swing.
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It's not a question of whether businesses can expand; it is a question of their willingness.
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The bloom is definitely off the housing rose. Housing peaked last summer and has been weakening ever since.
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The baby boom echo generation is now in their mid-teens, at a time when demand for electronics is very high. And they're old enough now to put pressure on their parents to ante up. I know that from personal experience.
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Once skittish businesses are turning into confident businesses that are willing and able to hire. I think the job market will improve further in the course of the coming year.