Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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The work force is growing not because employers are hiring a lot of new workers to staff expanding operations. The economy, in other words, is not being driven by businesses out there scouring for opportunity and revenue growth and pushing up wages as they compete to hire more workers.
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There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out. Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.
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There won't be any change in the script the Fed has laid out, ... Export growth has weakened and there is a lid on wage growth. This data takes some pressure off of the more hawkish Fed members.
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Productivity growth is slowing and it is not strong enough to forestall rising labor costs and broader inflation.
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As the memory of the tech bust fades, we seem to be getting better and better job growth.
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Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a combination of slower growth and higher inflation.
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It does indicate that the second quarter was a disappointing quarter, ... Growth slowed sharply. Consumers became more cautious and our trade deficit ballooned. The economy was weighed down by higher energy prices.
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This should be a year where the tech market stabilizes but I don't see job growth until 2004.
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Consumer spending growth will moderate, but it won't impede the current pace of economic expansion.
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That's right where the Fed would like to see it, ... It would take a good year of that level of monthly growth before the job market tightens to the degree where inflation concerns would become more paramount.
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It's better than it was but it's not as good as anywhere else. There are growing pockets of strength. Chicago, Kansas City, Minneapolis -- these are economies that had been severely depressed a few years ago and are now making their way back.
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It's similar to asking a big part of the labor force to leave. In today's economy where the job market is at capacity, asking people to leave means the economy will not grow as fast. In fact, there could be a very difficult adjustment over the first three to four years when this process is in full swing.
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It undermines growth at the same time that it fans inflation.
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Ultimately, if you err on the side of being dovish it will only come with more pain from slower growth. The hit to growth would be more substantial from higher inflation than from interest rate hikes.