Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi
Mark Zandi is chief economist of Moody's Analytics, where he directs economic research. He is co-founder of Economy.com, which was acquired by Moody's Analytics in 2005. Prior to founding Economy.com, Zandi was a regional economist at Chase Econometrics...
NationalityAmerican
ProfessionEconomist
CountryUnited States of America
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The new chairman will want to show his inflation-fighting mettle. Early on, Chairman Greenspan was on the aggressive side to establish his credentials.
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This Administration is trying to change the whole intellectual basis for fiscal policy that Alan Greenspan enforced when deficits were large in the early 1990s. We got fiscal discipline through the idea that deficits matter. That's been flipped on its head.
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This is a similar point in the business cycle to when Greenspan took over the reins of the Fed. And of course he was tested right away with the 1987 stock market crash.
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Housing is a fault line in the economy that Greenspan is indeed worried about, but he doesn't think a housing (slowdown) will undermine the expansion.
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He doesn't have the wide range of experience Greenspan did going into the job, which has served Greenspan well.
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Greenspan should weigh against asset markets in the good times -- just as he works to support them in the difficult times. He's been one-sided in his policies,
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If Greenspan had been stronger in his views, then the bubble would not have been as large and the subsequent correction not as severe.
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In Florida, people are moving up the coast
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Inflation is still low and modest, but there are growing signs that it is starting to pick up.
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It's similar to asking a big part of the labor force to leave. In today's economy where the job market is at capacity, asking people to leave means the economy will not grow as fast. In fact, there could be a very difficult adjustment over the first three to four years when this process is in full swing.
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It's not a question of whether businesses can expand; it is a question of their willingness.
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The bloom is definitely off the housing rose. Housing peaked last summer and has been weakening ever since.
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The baby boom echo generation is now in their mid-teens, at a time when demand for electronics is very high. And they're old enough now to put pressure on their parents to ante up. I know that from personal experience.
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Once skittish businesses are turning into confident businesses that are willing and able to hire. I think the job market will improve further in the course of the coming year.