John Silvia
John Silvia
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Manufacturing sector employment is likely to improve in the months ahead. However, employment gains are likely to remain below par.
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Job gains were clearly below expectations and trend. There may be some bounce back next month in specific sectors. Slower job gains may also reflect the impact of higher oil prices and uncertainty in the spring.
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The rate of spending is less than you would have expected given the typical business cycle. Companies have made a lot of money, but if you look at equipment and software spending, this cycle is below the pace of the past three or four cycles.
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If you're going to set a price below market price, you're going to have to have some sort of rationing. I don't care if it's gasoline, prescription drugs or rent control in New York City.
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The recession was largely centered in the manufacturing sector, and that is where we continue to see the strongest signs of recovery.
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There has to be concern about sustainability of growth overseas; Japan is central to that issue, ... If people are looking at fundamentals, that's the only news they have to look at this morning.
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We avoided the sticker shock from high heating bills in October because it was so warm. If it stays warm through Thanksgiving, we should have a good holiday shopping season.
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As suggested by the orders data and the ISM survey, the initial stage of inventory replenishment has not been sustained, ... Slower growth ahead remains the most likely outcome.
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You can no longer make the argument that there is a lot of excess capacity out there. The bias on inflation is a little bit to the upside and the Fed has to be careful about that.
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Firms can't afford to offer much, and workers don't want to threaten to leave because of the job situation.
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Firms are substituting capital -- particularly high-tech capital -- for labor. They're putting smart machines on the factory floor and in the service industry. That may explain why high-tech orders for capital goods have been going up, despite the fact that manufacturers don't seem to be hiring a lot of people.
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We went from adding zero to 50,000 jobs per month up to adding 300,000 jobs per month. Now we're going to adding 200,000 per month. Going from 300,000 to 200,000 means we've gone from a recovery to an expansion.
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The recent decline in crude oil prices took out a little bit of the peak in energy cycle. But the fundamental underlying price is higher than it was a year or six months ago.
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If they don't move to a neutral position, the bond market will react negatively. If the Fed sits there and reiterates the same risk on inflation, the bond market is going to look at this and say the Fed is way behind the curve.