Howard Archer
Howard Archer
data gains house prices provides sharp support sustain time unable view
The Nationwide data provides support for our long-held view that house prices will be unable to sustain sharp gains for some time to come.
belief consumer february fourth performance quarter relatively seen spending strong survey sustain unable
The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005.
bank competition costs despite domestic efforts england happy higher increased input intense output pass prices rate relatively rose soft stepping
The Bank of England will not be happy to see that manufacturers output prices rose at an increased rate in December, as it suggests that they could be stepping up their efforts to pass on their higher input costs despite intense domestic and international competition and relatively soft demand.
bank contained england further gas good increase input largely less news output pleased prices producer remained sharp
The Bank of England will be pleased to see that producer output prices remained largely contained in December, but less good news is the further sharp increase in input prices as gas prices soared.
act appears august bank currently england evidence given growth quarter risen seems survey unlikely
The Bank of England currently seems unlikely to act before August given that growth in the first quarter appears to have been around trend, while survey evidence indicates that inflationary expectations have risen recently.
annual base due effects fall headline inflation march oil output price prices primarily producer reflecting rise sharp year
The fall in headline annual producer output price inflation in March was primarily due to base effects reflecting the particularly sharp rise in producer prices a year ago as oil prices surged.
consumer economic european hard improvement link marked past spending weak
The consumer is the weak link in the European economic upturn story. We're past the worst, but it's hard to see a marked improvement in spending coming.
budget economic key low seems terms
In economic terms at least, Wednesday's budget seems set to be a very low key affair.
bank certainty england hold interest rates seems steady
It seems a nailed-on certainty that the Bank of England will hold interest rates steady on Thursday,
cut door interest keeps open rate
This very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February.
bank basis belief england eventually further growth interest optimistic outlook rates
This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points.
across beginning consumer employment euro finally growth key labor markets pickup region rising since somewhat spending
Euro region labor markets are finally beginning to see genuine, if somewhat limited, improvement, boosted by the pickup in growth since mid-2005. Rising employment is key to boosting consumer spending across the euro region.
export february flat orders
Flat export orders in February are particularly disappointing.
believe cut delayed early increasing odds premature rule until
While we believe that it is premature to rule out another 25-basis-point cut before the end of this year, we acknowledge that the odds are increasing that it will be delayed until early 2006.