Howard Archer
Howard Archer
consumer december following marked overall performance recent relatively seen spending strong stronger survey
While the CBI survey indicated a marked softening in consumer spending following the relatively strong December performance, it nevertheless indicated a significantly stronger performance than that seen overall in recent months.
coming consumer critically depends future growth relatively suspect
Future growth still depends critically on developments in consumer spending, and we suspect that this will be relatively muted over the coming months.
basis believe chances components cut data diminishes fourth further healthy interest mix point possible quarter rate relatively
While the fourth quarter GDP data and the relatively healthy mix of the components further diminishes the chances of a near-term trimming of interest rates, we still believe a 25 basis point interest rate cut is very possible in May.
activity approval data february hints housing lending lose market momentum months mortgage relatively several starting
While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement.
believe coming debt earnings given house increased increases levels price relatively
We believe house price increases will be relatively muted over the coming months, given affordability constraints, increased debt levels and muted earnings growth.
again caution consumer continuing credit growth pointing relatively
Consumer credit growth was again relatively muted in September, pointing to continuing consumer caution,
confidence consumer following held relatively sharp
Consumer confidence held up relatively well in February, following January's sharp bounce.
bank competition costs despite domestic efforts england happy higher increased input intense output pass prices rate relatively rose soft stepping
The Bank of England will not be happy to see that manufacturers output prices rose at an increased rate in December, as it suggests that they could be stepping up their efforts to pass on their higher input costs despite intense domestic and international competition and relatively soft demand.
bank change england healthy interest next overall rates relatively report sector service time unchanged
This is still a pretty healthy report overall that suggests that the service sector has started 2006 relatively strongly. The report does little to change perceptions that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next week, and very probably for some time to come after then.
consumer continue costs domestic high input intense relatively subdued
Relatively subdued consumer spending, intense domestic and international competition, and high input costs continue to dampen ... the sector.
extended flat house likely prices relatively remain
House prices are likely to remain relatively flat for an extended period,
belief consumer february fourth performance quarter relatively seen spending strong survey sustain unable
The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005.
domestic euro fragile hanging marks question relatively strength
The euro zone's upturn is still young and relatively fragile with significant question marks still hanging over the long-term strength of domestic demand.
drag expansion fourth growth major modest overall quarter sector
The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.