Howard Archer
Howard Archer
coming consumer critically depends future growth relatively suspect
Future growth still depends critically on developments in consumer spending, and we suspect that this will be relatively muted over the coming months.
below climb coming continue danger economic further growth individual likely mortgage near remain term trend
With economic growth likely to remain below trend in the near term at least and unemployment set to continue rising, there is a very real danger that individual insolvencies and mortgage repossessions will climb markedly further over the coming months.
believe coming debt earnings given house increased increases levels price relatively
We believe house price increases will be relatively muted over the coming months, given affordability constraints, increased debt levels and muted earnings growth.
bank clearly coming growing higher house move prices risk showing
There is undeniably a growing risk that house prices could move markedly higher over the coming months. Indeed, this risk is clearly showing more prominently on the Bank of England's radar.
activity clearly coming higher house housing increased led market move prices recent risk
This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months.
boosts clear coming december demand domestic economic hopes improvement kick months sentiment support
The clear improvement in economic sentiment in December boosts hopes that domestic demand will increasingly kick in over the coming months to support growth.
coming contain further inclined monetary months policy remains
All the indications are that the ECB remains inclined to tighten monetary policy further over the coming months to contain inflationary risks.
coming correction doubts following house january latter limited marked months price prices rises sharp strong sustained
The limited correction in the Halifax house price index in January following the marked rises during the latter months of 2005 reinforces our strong doubts that house prices will see sustained sharp rises over the coming months.
drag expansion fourth growth major modest overall quarter sector
The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
avoid brown finances guarantees hikes january major public spending strength tax
The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.
deter euro further growth hike interest likely march raising rates remains zone
The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
across beginning consumer employment euro finally growth key labor markets pickup region rising since somewhat spending
Euro region labor markets are finally beginning to see genuine, if somewhat limited, improvement, boosted by the pickup in growth since mid-2005. Rising employment is key to boosting consumer spending across the euro region.
export february flat orders
Flat export orders in February are particularly disappointing.
belief case consumer growth healthy interest november picking rate retail sales spending
Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.