Howard Archer
Howard Archer
belief consumer despite remain retail spending subdued time
This reinforces our belief that consumer spending will remain subdued for some time to come despite September's pick-up in retail sales.
data gains house prices provides sharp support sustain time unable view
The Nationwide data provides support for our long-held view that house prices will be unable to sustain sharp gains for some time to come.
bank change england healthy interest next overall rates relatively report sector service time unchanged
This is still a pretty healthy report overall that suggests that the service sector has started 2006 relatively strongly. The report does little to change perceptions that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next week, and very probably for some time to come after then.
accelerate basis believe buyer doubtful floor higher highly house interest keeping likely move prices remain soon start sustained thereby time
This is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we remain highly doubtful that house prices will move substantially higher on a sustained basis any time soon. If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.
below climb coming continue danger economic further growth individual likely mortgage near remain term trend
With economic growth likely to remain below trend in the near term at least and unemployment set to continue rising, there is a very real danger that individual insolvencies and mortgage repossessions will climb markedly further over the coming months.
bank below both clearly consumer cut december england forecast inflation interest january level levels looks november price rate suddenly target
With consumer price inflation below the 2% target level in both December and January and clearly below the levels forecast by the Bank of England in their November quarterly inflation report, a near-term interest rate cut suddenly looks a very real possibility again.
bank boost clearly consumer data england hopes inflation largely october premature prices reassuring sound
While it is clearly premature to sound the all-clear on inflation, the October consumer prices data are largely reassuring for the Bank of England and boost hopes that inflation has peaked,
bank charlie chief cut december early england interest member odds rate recently voting
With one member of the MPC voting for an interest rate cut in December and Bank of England chief economist, Charlie Bean, recently making some dovish comments, the odds of an interest rate cut early in 2006 are rising.
believe coming debt earnings given house increased increases levels price relatively
We believe house price increases will be relatively muted over the coming months, given affordability constraints, increased debt levels and muted earnings growth.
cut door interest keeps open rate
This very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February.
bank basis belief england eventually further growth interest optimistic outlook rates
This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points.
cut eventual increases interest move next odds prospects rates until
This significantly reduces the prospects of any interest cut until at least August. Indeed, it increases the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates could be up.
below data features headline positive
Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.
believe cut delayed early increasing odds premature rule until
While we believe that it is premature to rule out another 25-basis-point cut before the end of this year, we acknowledge that the odds are increasing that it will be delayed until early 2006.