Howard Archer
Howard Archer
again caution consumer continuing credit growth pointing relatively
Consumer credit growth was again relatively muted in September, pointing to continuing consumer caution,
confidence consumer near spending term
Consumer confidence is faltering anew, which does not bode well for spending in the near term at least.
confidence consumer following held relatively sharp
Consumer confidence held up relatively well in February, following January's sharp bounce.
cold interest minutes pour prospects rate water
The minutes pour more cold water over the prospects for a near-term interest rate cut.
bank belief consumer england optimistic retail retreat stunning
This is a really stunning retreat in retail sales. It reinforces our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic about consumer spending.
bank change england healthy interest next overall rates relatively report sector service time unchanged
This is still a pretty healthy report overall that suggests that the service sector has started 2006 relatively strongly. The report does little to change perceptions that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next week, and very probably for some time to come after then.
bank benign contained england february inflation line overall report
This is still a pretty benign report overall and broadly in line with Bank of England expectations contained in the February Inflation Report.
although bank consumer cut door early england interest keeps levels open prefer rate spending strength wage wait
This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.
consumer energy evidence higher increasing inflation late pay price pushed recently starting
This confirms that late in 2005 there was still no evidence that pay was starting to be pushed up by recently higher consumer price inflation and increasing energy bills.
conclusive evidence pay remaining sustained
The MPC still has to see conclusive sustained evidence that 2006 pay settlements are remaining contained.
consumer energy feeding high housing looks months oil prices remain round second sidelines spending strength
The MPC could remain on the sidelines for some months to come as it monitors the strength of consumer spending and the housing market, and also looks to see if high oil and energy prices are feeding through to have second round inflationary effects.
export february flat orders
Flat export orders in February are particularly disappointing.
committee hold impression interest months rates reinforce remain select several treasury
The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.
belief case consumer growth healthy interest november picking rate retail sales spending
Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.