Howard Archer
Howard Archer
bank decline england interest leaving output rates sway unchanged unlikely
The disappointing decline in manufacturing output is most unlikely to sway the Bank of England from leaving interest rates unchanged on Thursday.
coming contain further inclined monetary months policy remains
All the indications are that the ECB remains inclined to tighten monetary policy further over the coming months to contain inflationary risks.
activity current data eventual housing improvement including increased interest latest market move next odds rates strength
The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.
coming correction doubts following house january latter limited marked months price prices rises sharp strong sustained
The limited correction in the Halifax house price index in January following the marked rises during the latter months of 2005 reinforces our strong doubts that house prices will see sustained sharp rises over the coming months.
cutting data interest prompt rates unlikely weak
The GDP data (is) unlikely to be weak enough to prompt the MPC into cutting interest rates in November,
bank basis believe clear contained cutting data early earnings encourage england evidence further future hold immediate interest likely march moderation pay points rates remaining seeks signs sustained wage
The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.
activity adds annual buyer cent climb degree evidence house housing increased inflation limited low market november october per price prices recent recently reported stronger
The climb in annual house price inflation to 2.5 per cent in November from a nine-year low of 1.8 per cent in October reported by the ODPM adds to the recent evidence that house prices have firmed to a limited degree recently amid stronger housing market activity and increased buyer interest.
boosts clear coming december demand domestic economic hopes improvement kick months sentiment support
The clear improvement in economic sentiment in December boosts hopes that domestic demand will increasingly kick in over the coming months to support growth.
bank belief consumer earnings employment england falling forecast growth hardly overall pressures remain rising softer supportive underlying
The combination of rising unemployment, falling employment and muted earnings growth is hardly supportive for consumer spending. It reinforces our belief that overall growth will be softer than forecast by the Bank of England and that underlying inflationary pressures will remain muted.