Howard Archer
Howard Archer
bank exactly growth interest matched months rates remain several unchanged
Year-on-year growth of 2.2-percent exactly matched the Bank of England's forecast... reinforcing expectations that interest rates are set to remain unchanged for several more months to come.
demand domestic fourth goods imports month oil rose successive suggesting surprised uk upside
UK imports of goods excluding oil ... rose for a fourth successive month in February, and by substantial 4.5 percent, suggesting that domestic demand may have surprised on the upside in the first quarter.
although august basis believe eventually further interest rates uk until
We still believe UK interest rates will eventually be trimmed by a further 25 basis points, although not until August at the earliest.
areas consumer economy extended period risk spending
There is a very real risk that consumer spending will be muted for an extended period without any other areas of the economy compensating significantly.
basis belief contain cut expected february further growth help interest points pressures rates subdued underlying
This subdued growth is expected to help to contain underlying inflationary pressures and risks, underpinning our belief that interest rates will be cut by a further 25 basis points in February or March.
deficit dragged fifth oil overall performance reduced successive surplus trade
The overall trade performance was dragged down by a fifth successive deficit in oil trade and a reduced surplus in services.
excellent experience sunday
Our Sunday lunches have been an excellent flagship because that is often many people's first experience of our menus.
bank clearly coming growing higher house move prices risk showing
There is undeniably a growing risk that house prices could move markedly higher over the coming months. Indeed, this risk is clearly showing more prominently on the Bank of England's radar.
bank belief consumer england optimistic retail retreat stunning
This is a really stunning retreat in retail sales. It reinforces our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic about consumer spending.
bank change england healthy interest next overall rates relatively report sector service time unchanged
This is still a pretty healthy report overall that suggests that the service sector has started 2006 relatively strongly. The report does little to change perceptions that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next week, and very probably for some time to come after then.
bank benign contained england february inflation line overall report
This is still a pretty benign report overall and broadly in line with Bank of England expectations contained in the February Inflation Report.
although bank consumer cut door early england interest keeps levels open prefer rate spending strength wage wait
This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.
consumer energy evidence higher increasing inflation late pay price pushed recently starting
This confirms that late in 2005 there was still no evidence that pay was starting to be pushed up by recently higher consumer price inflation and increasing energy bills.
activity confidence floor house housing increasing interest likely market rate rising
Activity is benefiting from August's interest rate cut, increasing confidence in the housing market and still rising employment. This is likely to put a floor under house prices.