Howard Archer
Howard Archer
confidence consumer near spending term
Consumer confidence is faltering anew, which does not bode well for spending in the near term at least.
confidence consumer following held relatively sharp
Consumer confidence held up relatively well in February, following January's sharp bounce.
cold interest minutes pour prospects rate water
The minutes pour more cold water over the prospects for a near-term interest rate cut.
bank exactly growth interest matched months rates remain several unchanged
Year-on-year growth of 2.2-percent exactly matched the Bank of England's forecast... reinforcing expectations that interest rates are set to remain unchanged for several more months to come.
demand domestic fourth goods imports month oil rose successive suggesting surprised uk upside
UK imports of goods excluding oil ... rose for a fourth successive month in February, and by substantial 4.5 percent, suggesting that domestic demand may have surprised on the upside in the first quarter.
basis believe eventually further interest points rates
We believe that interest rates will eventually come down by a further 25 basis points to 4.25%.
extended flat house likely prices relatively remain
House prices are likely to remain relatively flat for an extended period,
believe coming debt earnings given house increased increases levels price relatively
We believe house price increases will be relatively muted over the coming months, given affordability constraints, increased debt levels and muted earnings growth.
belief consumer despite remain retail spending subdued time
This reinforces our belief that consumer spending will remain subdued for some time to come despite September's pick-up in retail sales.
below climb coming continue danger economic further growth individual likely mortgage near remain term trend
With economic growth likely to remain below trend in the near term at least and unemployment set to continue rising, there is a very real danger that individual insolvencies and mortgage repossessions will climb markedly further over the coming months.
bank below both clearly consumer cut december england forecast inflation interest january level levels looks november price rate suddenly target
With consumer price inflation below the 2% target level in both December and January and clearly below the levels forecast by the Bank of England in their November quarterly inflation report, a near-term interest rate cut suddenly looks a very real possibility again.
bank boost clearly consumer data england hopes inflation largely october premature prices reassuring sound
While it is clearly premature to sound the all-clear on inflation, the October consumer prices data are largely reassuring for the Bank of England and boost hopes that inflation has peaked,
bank charlie chief cut december early england interest member odds rate recently voting
With one member of the MPC voting for an interest rate cut in December and Bank of England chief economist, Charlie Bean, recently making some dovish comments, the odds of an interest rate cut early in 2006 are rising.
although august basis believe eventually further interest rates uk until
We still believe UK interest rates will eventually be trimmed by a further 25 basis points, although not until August at the earliest.