Howard Archer
Howard Archer
avoid brown finances guarantees hikes january major public spending strength tax
The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.
along boosts consumer current exactly expected hopes housing picked retail sales strength
Retail sales picked up more than expected in March, which along with the current strength in the housing market, boosts hopes that the consumer is still alive, if not exactly kicking.
although bank consumer cut door early england interest keeps levels open prefer rate spending strength wage wait
This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.
consumer energy feeding high housing looks months oil prices remain round second sidelines spending strength
The MPC could remain on the sidelines for some months to come as it monitors the strength of consumer spending and the housing market, and also looks to see if high oil and energy prices are feeding through to have second round inflationary effects.
activity current data eventual housing improvement including increased interest latest market move next odds rates strength
The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.
domestic euro fragile hanging marks question relatively strength
The euro zone's upturn is still young and relatively fragile with significant question marks still hanging over the long-term strength of domestic demand.
drag expansion fourth growth major modest overall quarter sector
The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
deter euro further growth hike interest likely march raising rates remains zone
The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
across beginning consumer employment euro finally growth key labor markets pickup region rising since somewhat spending
Euro region labor markets are finally beginning to see genuine, if somewhat limited, improvement, boosted by the pickup in growth since mid-2005. Rising employment is key to boosting consumer spending across the euro region.
export february flat orders
Flat export orders in February are particularly disappointing.
belief case consumer growth healthy interest november picking rate retail sales spending
Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.
below data features headline positive
Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.
committee hold impression interest months rates reinforce remain select several treasury
The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.
cut eventual increases interest move next odds prospects rates until
This significantly reduces the prospects of any interest cut until at least August. Indeed, it increases the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates could be up.