Howard Archer
Howard Archer
believe coming debt earnings given house increased increases levels price relatively
We believe house price increases will be relatively muted over the coming months, given affordability constraints, increased debt levels and muted earnings growth.
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The Bank of England will not be happy to see that manufacturers output prices rose at an increased rate in December, as it suggests that they could be stepping up their efforts to pass on their higher input costs despite intense domestic and international competition and relatively soft demand.
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This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months.
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The climb in annual house price inflation to 2.5 per cent in November from a nine-year low of 1.8 per cent in October reported by the ODPM adds to the recent evidence that house prices have firmed to a limited degree recently amid stronger housing market activity and increased buyer interest.
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The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.
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Healthy mortgage lending data show that housing market activity extended its recent firmer performance in December. This is also borne out by the latest survey evidence consistently showing increased buyer interest.
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The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
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The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.
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The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
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Euro region labor markets are finally beginning to see genuine, if somewhat limited, improvement, boosted by the pickup in growth since mid-2005. Rising employment is key to boosting consumer spending across the euro region.
export february flat orders
Flat export orders in February are particularly disappointing.
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Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.
below data features headline positive
Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.
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The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.