Howard Archer
Howard Archer
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Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.
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This is a really stunning retreat in retail sales. It reinforces our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic about consumer spending.
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The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
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The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.
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The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
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The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.
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If this is confirmed, it will reinforce our suspicion that the December performance was inflated by many consumers opening their wallets to treat their families and themselves at Christmas having held back their spending over much of 2005.
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Retail sales picked up more than expected in March, which along with the current strength in the housing market, boosts hopes that the consumer is still alive, if not exactly kicking.
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Nevertheless, limited core inflation in January will not deter the ECB from hiking interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday.
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Mr Brown will clearly look to take advantage of the budget to further his credentials to take over as prime minister from Mr Blair.
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No change was no surprise, given recent overall evidence of modestly stronger economic activity and a more robust housing market.
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Following the higher-than-expected headline producer price inflation data for January... (Tuesday's data) is welcome reassurance that strong competitive pressures through the supply chain are still limiting the pass-through effects of high oil and energy prices.
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There is undeniably a growing risk that house prices could move markedly higher over the coming months. Indeed, this risk is clearly showing more prominently on the Bank of England's radar.
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Consumer credit growth was again relatively muted in September, pointing to continuing consumer caution,