Howard Archer
Howard Archer
believe cut delayed early increasing odds premature rule until
While we believe that it is premature to rule out another 25-basis-point cut before the end of this year, we acknowledge that the odds are increasing that it will be delayed until early 2006.
basis believe chances components cut data diminishes fourth further healthy interest mix point possible quarter rate relatively
While the fourth quarter GDP data and the relatively healthy mix of the components further diminishes the chances of a near-term trimming of interest rates, we still believe a 25 basis point interest rate cut is very possible in May.
activity approval data february hints housing lending lose market momentum months mortgage relatively several starting
While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement.
believe coming debt earnings given house increased increases levels price relatively
We believe house price increases will be relatively muted over the coming months, given affordability constraints, increased debt levels and muted earnings growth.
chain data effects energy following headline high inflation limiting oil pressures price producer strong supply welcome
Following the higher-than-expected headline producer price inflation data for January... (Tuesday's data) is welcome reassurance that strong competitive pressures through the supply chain are still limiting the pass-through effects of high oil and energy prices.
again caution consumer continuing credit growth pointing relatively
Consumer credit growth was again relatively muted in September, pointing to continuing consumer caution,
confidence consumer near spending term
Consumer confidence is faltering anew, which does not bode well for spending in the near term at least.
confidence consumer following held relatively sharp
Consumer confidence held up relatively well in February, following January's sharp bounce.
cold interest minutes pour prospects rate water
The minutes pour more cold water over the prospects for a near-term interest rate cut.
bank certainty england hold interest rates seems steady
It seems a nailed-on certainty that the Bank of England will hold interest rates steady on Thursday,
bank competition costs despite domestic efforts england happy higher increased input intense output pass prices rate relatively rose soft stepping
The Bank of England will not be happy to see that manufacturers output prices rose at an increased rate in December, as it suggests that they could be stepping up their efforts to pass on their higher input costs despite intense domestic and international competition and relatively soft demand.
bank contained england further gas good increase input largely less news output pleased prices producer remained sharp
The Bank of England will be pleased to see that producer output prices remained largely contained in December, but less good news is the further sharp increase in input prices as gas prices soared.
act appears august bank currently england evidence given growth quarter risen seems survey unlikely
The Bank of England currently seems unlikely to act before August given that growth in the first quarter appears to have been around trend, while survey evidence indicates that inflationary expectations have risen recently.
basis believe eventually further interest points rates
We believe that interest rates will eventually come down by a further 25 basis points to 4.25%.