Howard Archer
Howard Archer
boost europe feed growth hoping improving recent signs sustained uk western
Going forward, UK exporters will be fervently hoping that recent signs of improving growth in Western Europe will be sustained and will increasingly feed through to boost exports,
basis believe eventually further interest points rates
We believe that interest rates will eventually come down by a further 25 basis points to 4.25%.
demand domestic fourth goods imports month oil rose successive suggesting surprised uk upside
UK imports of goods excluding oil ... rose for a fourth successive month in February, and by substantial 4.5 percent, suggesting that domestic demand may have surprised on the upside in the first quarter.
bank exactly growth interest matched months rates remain several unchanged
Year-on-year growth of 2.2-percent exactly matched the Bank of England's forecast... reinforcing expectations that interest rates are set to remain unchanged for several more months to come.
consumer december following marked overall performance recent relatively seen spending strong stronger survey
While the CBI survey indicated a marked softening in consumer spending following the relatively strong December performance, it nevertheless indicated a significantly stronger performance than that seen overall in recent months.
believe couple cut door early economy fails improvement interest next opening rate signs sustained
We believe the door is opening for an interest rate cut early in 2006 if the economy fails to show sustained significant signs of improvement over the next couple of months.
deficit dragged fifth oil overall performance reduced successive surplus trade
The overall trade performance was dragged down by a fifth successive deficit in oil trade and a reduced surplus in services.
activity continued data evident half housing indicate lending market mortgage robust second
Overall, the mortgage approvals and lending data indicate that the more robust housing market activity evident in the second half of 2005 has continued into 2006.
although august basis believe eventually further interest rates uk until
We still believe UK interest rates will eventually be trimmed by a further 25 basis points, although not until August at the earliest.
areas consumer economy extended period risk spending
There is a very real risk that consumer spending will be muted for an extended period without any other areas of the economy compensating significantly.
basis belief contain cut expected february further growth help interest points pressures rates subdued underlying
This subdued growth is expected to help to contain underlying inflationary pressures and risks, underpinning our belief that interest rates will be cut by a further 25 basis points in February or March.
drag expansion fourth growth major modest overall quarter sector
The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
avoid brown finances guarantees hikes january major public spending strength tax
The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.
deter euro further growth hike interest likely march raising rates remains zone
The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.