Howard Archer
Howard Archer
boost europe feed growth hoping improving recent signs sustained uk western
Going forward, UK exporters will be fervently hoping that recent signs of improving growth in Western Europe will be sustained and will increasingly feed through to boost exports,
consumer december following marked overall performance recent relatively seen spending strong stronger survey
While the CBI survey indicated a marked softening in consumer spending following the relatively strong December performance, it nevertheless indicated a significantly stronger performance than that seen overall in recent months.
activity borne buyer data evidence extended healthy housing increased latest lending market mortgage performance recent showing survey
Healthy mortgage lending data show that housing market activity extended its recent firmer performance in December. This is also borne out by the latest survey evidence consistently showing increased buyer interest.
bank certainly england further house housing interest market move prices rates risk rules sending stimulate wary
For now at least, the Bank of England will be very wary that a trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk sending house prices markedly higher. It certainly further rules out a move today.
borne case christmas consumer cut early emerging hard healthy interest picture rate reasonably seems spending underlying
The underlying picture that seems to be emerging is that consumer spending will be reasonably healthy over the Christmas period. If borne out by hard data, this dilutes the case for an interest rate cut early in the New Year.
central concern further housing interest likely market prices rates reinforce risk send stimulate
This is likely to reinforce the central bank's concern that any further trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk send housing prices markedly higher.
accelerate basis believe buyer doubtful floor higher highly house interest keeping likely move prices remain soon start sustained thereby time
This is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we remain highly doubtful that house prices will move substantially higher on a sustained basis any time soon. If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.
consumer equity mortgage peak reduced since spending weighed
The markedly reduced mortgage equity withdrawal since its fourth-quarter 2003 peak has undoubtedly weighed down significantly on consumer spending since mid-2004.
accelerate believe buyer house interest keeping prices start thereby
If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.
domestic euro fragile hanging marks question relatively strength
The euro zone's upturn is still young and relatively fragile with significant question marks still hanging over the long-term strength of domestic demand.
admit cut evidence further guarantees improvement interest looking marked rate rates sector whether
The evidence of marked improvement in the manufacturing sector further guarantees there will be no interest rate cut this Thursday. Indeed, we admit it is looking increasingly questionable whether interest rates will be trimmed further.
bank encourage immediate impression inflation rates report trim view
The immediate impression is that the inflation report is pretty neutral. It does little to encourage the view that the bank could trim rates in the immediate future.
encourage immediate impression inflation rates report trim view
The immediate impression is that the inflation report is pretty neutral, and it does little to encourage the view that the MPC could trim rates in the immediate future.
august consumer core due food fuel higher increase inflation july prices primarily
The increase in inflation in August was primarily due to higher prices for fuel and some food items, while core consumer inflation actually edged back down to 1.7% after spiking up to 1.8% in July from 1.5% in June.