Howard Archer
Howard Archer
bank certainty england hold interest rates seems steady
It seems a nailed-on certainty that the Bank of England will hold interest rates steady on Thursday,
cut door interest keeps open rate
This very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February.
bank basis belief england eventually further growth interest optimistic outlook rates
This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points.
basis believe chances components cut data diminishes fourth further healthy interest mix point possible quarter rate relatively
While the fourth quarter GDP data and the relatively healthy mix of the components further diminishes the chances of a near-term trimming of interest rates, we still believe a 25 basis point interest rate cut is very possible in May.
cut eventual increases interest move next odds prospects rates until
This significantly reduces the prospects of any interest cut until at least August. Indeed, it increases the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates could be up.
bank change england healthy interest next overall rates relatively report sector service time unchanged
This is still a pretty healthy report overall that suggests that the service sector has started 2006 relatively strongly. The report does little to change perceptions that the Bank of England will keep interest rates unchanged next week, and very probably for some time to come after then.
although bank consumer cut door early england interest keeps levels open prefer rate spending strength wage wait
This (CPI data) very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February, although the Bank of England may still prefer to wait while it monitors the strength of consumer spending and wage settlement levels early in 2006.
activity confidence floor house housing increasing interest likely market rate rising
Activity is benefiting from August's interest rate cut, increasing confidence in the housing market and still rising employment. This is likely to put a floor under house prices.
concern cut december evidence house imminent interest pressure prices retail robust sales sector service showing softness stronger survey
December survey evidence showing robust service sector activity, stronger retail sales and firmer house prices has temporarily at least alleviated some concern over the economy's softness and eased pressure on the MPC for an imminent cut in interest rates.
belief case consumer growth healthy interest november picking rate retail sales spending
Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.
deter euro further growth hike interest likely march raising rates remains zone
The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
committee hold impression interest months rates reinforce remain select several treasury
The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.
basis core deter further hiking inflation interest january limited points rates
Nevertheless, limited core inflation in January will not deter the ECB from hiking interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday.
cold interest minutes pour prospects rate water
The minutes pour more cold water over the prospects for a near-term interest rate cut.