Howard Archer
Howard Archer
deter euro further growth hike interest likely march raising rates remains zone
The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
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Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.
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The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.
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This significantly reduces the prospects of any interest cut until at least August. Indeed, it increases the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates could be up.
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It currently seems a pretty safe bet that interest rates will not change for several more months to come, if at all this year.
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We believe the door is opening for an interest rate cut early in 2006 if the economy fails to show sustained significant signs of improvement over the next couple of months.
basis core deter further hiking inflation interest january limited points rates
Nevertheless, limited core inflation in January will not deter the ECB from hiking interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday.
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With consumer price inflation below the 2% target level in both December and January and clearly below the levels forecast by the Bank of England in their November quarterly inflation report, a near-term interest rate cut suddenly looks a very real possibility again.
bank charlie chief cut december early england interest member odds rate recently voting
With one member of the MPC voting for an interest rate cut in December and Bank of England chief economist, Charlie Bean, recently making some dovish comments, the odds of an interest rate cut early in 2006 are rising.
cut door interest keeps open rate
This very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February.
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This underpins our belief that the Bank of England is too optimistic on the growth outlook and will eventually end up trimming interest rates by a further 25 basis points.
basis believe chances components cut data diminishes fourth further healthy interest mix point possible quarter rate relatively
While the fourth quarter GDP data and the relatively healthy mix of the components further diminishes the chances of a near-term trimming of interest rates, we still believe a 25 basis point interest rate cut is very possible in May.
cold interest minutes pour prospects rate water
The minutes pour more cold water over the prospects for a near-term interest rate cut.
bank certainty england hold interest rates seems steady
It seems a nailed-on certainty that the Bank of England will hold interest rates steady on Thursday,