Howard Archer
Howard Archer
believe couple cut door early economy fails improvement interest next opening rate signs sustained
We believe the door is opening for an interest rate cut early in 2006 if the economy fails to show sustained significant signs of improvement over the next couple of months.
conclusive evidence pay remaining sustained
The MPC still has to see conclusive sustained evidence that 2006 pay settlements are remaining contained.
boost europe feed growth hoping improving recent signs sustained uk western
Going forward, UK exporters will be fervently hoping that recent signs of improving growth in Western Europe will be sustained and will increasingly feed through to boost exports,
bank basis believe clear contained cutting data early earnings encourage england evidence further future hold immediate interest likely march moderation pay points rates remaining seeks signs sustained wage
The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.
accelerate basis believe buyer doubtful floor higher highly house interest keeping likely move prices remain soon start sustained thereby time
This is likely to put a floor under house prices, but we remain highly doubtful that house prices will move substantially higher on a sustained basis any time soon. If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices.
coming correction doubts following house january latter limited marked months price prices rises sharp strong sustained
The limited correction in the Halifax house price index in January following the marked rises during the latter months of 2005 reinforces our strong doubts that house prices will see sustained sharp rises over the coming months.
drag expansion fourth growth major modest overall quarter sector
The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
avoid brown finances guarantees hikes january major public spending strength tax
The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.
deter euro further growth hike interest likely march raising rates remains zone
The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
across beginning consumer employment euro finally growth key labor markets pickup region rising since somewhat spending
Euro region labor markets are finally beginning to see genuine, if somewhat limited, improvement, boosted by the pickup in growth since mid-2005. Rising employment is key to boosting consumer spending across the euro region.
export february flat orders
Flat export orders in February are particularly disappointing.
belief case consumer growth healthy interest november picking rate retail sales spending
Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.
below data features headline positive
Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.
committee hold impression interest months rates reinforce remain select several treasury
The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.