Howard Archer
Howard Archer
committee hold impression interest months rates reinforce remain select several treasury
The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.
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It currently seems a pretty safe bet that interest rates will not change for several more months to come, if at all this year.
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While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement.
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Year-on-year growth of 2.2-percent exactly matched the Bank of England's forecast... reinforcing expectations that interest rates are set to remain unchanged for several more months to come.
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The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
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The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.
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The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
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Euro region labor markets are finally beginning to see genuine, if somewhat limited, improvement, boosted by the pickup in growth since mid-2005. Rising employment is key to boosting consumer spending across the euro region.
export february flat orders
Flat export orders in February are particularly disappointing.
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Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.
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Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.
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This significantly reduces the prospects of any interest cut until at least August. Indeed, it increases the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates could be up.
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While the CBI survey indicated a marked softening in consumer spending following the relatively strong December performance, it nevertheless indicated a significantly stronger performance than that seen overall in recent months.
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Manufacturers will be hoping that healthier growth in the euro zone and a recently softer pound will increasingly feed through to give them with a significant boost in 2006.