Howard Archer
Howard Archer
basis core deter further hiking inflation interest january limited points rates
Nevertheless, limited core inflation in January will not deter the ECB from hiking interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Thursday.
basis believe chances components cut data diminishes fourth further healthy interest mix point possible quarter rate relatively
While the fourth quarter GDP data and the relatively healthy mix of the components further diminishes the chances of a near-term trimming of interest rates, we still believe a 25 basis point interest rate cut is very possible in May.
again caution consumer continuing credit growth pointing relatively
Consumer credit growth was again relatively muted in September, pointing to continuing consumer caution,
basis believe eventually further interest points rates
We believe that interest rates will eventually come down by a further 25 basis points to 4.25%.
basis belief contain cut expected february further growth help interest points pressures rates subdued underlying
This subdued growth is expected to help to contain underlying inflationary pressures and risks, underpinning our belief that interest rates will be cut by a further 25 basis points in February or March.
bank basis believe clear contained cutting data early earnings encourage england evidence further future hold immediate interest likely march moderation pay points rates remaining seeks signs sustained wage
The earnings data may encourage the Bank of England to hold off from cutting interest rates in the immediate future as March while it seeks sustained clear evidence that the pay settlements for 2006 are remaining contained (the early signs are that wage moderation is continuing). However, we believe that interest rates are likely to be trimmed by a further 25 basis points by May.
drag expansion fourth growth major modest overall quarter sector
The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
avoid brown finances guarantees hikes january major public spending strength tax
The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.
deter euro further growth hike interest likely march raising rates remains zone
The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
across beginning consumer employment euro finally growth key labor markets pickup region rising since somewhat spending
Euro region labor markets are finally beginning to see genuine, if somewhat limited, improvement, boosted by the pickup in growth since mid-2005. Rising employment is key to boosting consumer spending across the euro region.
export february flat orders
Flat export orders in February are particularly disappointing.
belief case consumer growth healthy interest november picking rate retail sales spending
Pretty healthy retail sales growth in November reinforces belief that consumer spending is picking up to some extent, and reduces the case for a near-term interest rate cut.
below data features headline positive
Below the headline data there are some positive features that should not be overlooked.
committee hold impression interest months rates reinforce remain select several treasury
The testimonies to the Treasury Select Committee reinforce the impression that interest rates are set to remain on hold for several months to come.