Howard Archer
Howard Archer
belief consumer february fourth performance quarter relatively seen spending strong survey sustain unable
The February CBI survey reinforces our belief that consumer spending will be unable to sustain the relatively strong performance seen in the fourth quarter of 2005.
christmas consumers december families held inflated opening performance reinforce spending suspicion themselves treat
If this is confirmed, it will reinforce our suspicion that the December performance was inflated by many consumers opening their wallets to treat their families and themselves at Christmas having held back their spending over much of 2005.
deficit dragged fifth oil overall performance reduced successive surplus trade
The overall trade performance was dragged down by a fifth successive deficit in oil trade and a reduced surplus in services.
consumer december following marked overall performance recent relatively seen spending strong stronger survey
While the CBI survey indicated a marked softening in consumer spending following the relatively strong December performance, it nevertheless indicated a significantly stronger performance than that seen overall in recent months.
activity borne buyer data evidence extended healthy housing increased latest lending market mortgage performance recent showing survey
Healthy mortgage lending data show that housing market activity extended its recent firmer performance in December. This is also borne out by the latest survey evidence consistently showing increased buyer interest.
bank competition costs despite domestic efforts england happy higher increased input intense output pass prices rate relatively rose soft stepping
The Bank of England will not be happy to see that manufacturers output prices rose at an increased rate in December, as it suggests that they could be stepping up their efforts to pass on their higher input costs despite intense domestic and international competition and relatively soft demand.
bank contained england further gas good increase input largely less news output pleased prices producer remained sharp
The Bank of England will be pleased to see that producer output prices remained largely contained in December, but less good news is the further sharp increase in input prices as gas prices soared.
act appears august bank currently england evidence given growth quarter risen seems survey unlikely
The Bank of England currently seems unlikely to act before August given that growth in the first quarter appears to have been around trend, while survey evidence indicates that inflationary expectations have risen recently.
data gains house prices provides sharp support sustain time unable view
The Nationwide data provides support for our long-held view that house prices will be unable to sustain sharp gains for some time to come.
annual base due effects fall headline inflation march oil output price prices primarily producer reflecting rise sharp year
The fall in headline annual producer output price inflation in March was primarily due to base effects reflecting the particularly sharp rise in producer prices a year ago as oil prices surged.
consumer economic european hard improvement link marked past spending weak
The consumer is the weak link in the European economic upturn story. We're past the worst, but it's hard to see a marked improvement in spending coming.
budget economic key low seems terms
In economic terms at least, Wednesday's budget seems set to be a very low key affair.
bank certainty england hold interest rates seems steady
It seems a nailed-on certainty that the Bank of England will hold interest rates steady on Thursday,
cut door interest keeps open rate
This very much keeps the door open for an interest rate cut in February.