Howard Archer
Howard Archer
across beginning consumer employment euro finally growth key labor markets pickup region rising since somewhat spending
Euro region labor markets are finally beginning to see genuine, if somewhat limited, improvement, boosted by the pickup in growth since mid-2005. Rising employment is key to boosting consumer spending across the euro region.
activity approval data february hints housing lending lose market momentum months mortgage relatively several starting
While the February mortgage lending and approval data are relatively healthy, there are hints that housing market activity could be starting to lose momentum after several months of improvement.
activity confidence floor house housing increasing interest likely market rate rising
Activity is benefiting from August's interest rate cut, increasing confidence in the housing market and still rising employment. This is likely to put a floor under house prices.
activity clearly coming higher house housing increased led market move prices recent risk
This increased housing market activity has clearly led to some recent firming in house prices, and there is undeniably a risk that prices could move sharply higher over the coming months.
activity continued data evident half housing indicate lending market mortgage robust second
Overall, the mortgage approvals and lending data indicate that the more robust housing market activity evident in the second half of 2005 has continued into 2006.
bank certainly england further house housing interest market move prices rates risk rules sending stimulate wary
For now at least, the Bank of England will be very wary that a trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk sending house prices markedly higher. It certainly further rules out a move today.
activity adds annual buyer cent climb degree evidence house housing increased inflation limited low market november october per price prices recent recently reported stronger
The climb in annual house price inflation to 2.5 per cent in November from a nine-year low of 1.8 per cent in October reported by the ODPM adds to the recent evidence that house prices have firmed to a limited degree recently amid stronger housing market activity and increased buyer interest.
central concern further housing interest likely market prices rates reinforce risk send stimulate
This is likely to reinforce the central bank's concern that any further trimming of interest rates could excessively stimulate the housing market and risk send housing prices markedly higher.
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The latest data - including the improvement in manufacturing activity and current strength of the housing market - has increased the odds that the eventual next move in interest rates will be up.
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Healthy mortgage lending data show that housing market activity extended its recent firmer performance in December. This is also borne out by the latest survey evidence consistently showing increased buyer interest.
drag expansion fourth growth major modest overall quarter sector
The sector may see modest expansion in the first quarter of 2006, having been a major drag on overall growth in the fourth quarter.
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The strength of the public finances in January effectively guarantees that Brown will be able to avoid making any major tax hikes or significant spending cutbacks in March's budget.
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The slowdown in euro zone growth will not deter the ECB from raising interest rates in March and a further hike remains very likely in June.
export february flat orders
Flat export orders in February are particularly disappointing.