Gary Thayer
Gary Thayer
cut door economy fed indeed leave numbers open rates
These numbers show the economy is indeed in recession, and they leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again.
interest numbers raise rates urgent
These numbers look as if there's no urgent need to raise interest rates much further.
bias fed hold level low maintain policy rates steady toward
The Fed will probably hold rates steady at a low level as long as they can. And I think as long as the unemployment rate is rising, they'll maintain a policy bias toward weakness.
economy falter fed looking oil prices raise rates reason
The Fed may be looking at oil prices as a reason for the economy to falter and not a reason for it to overheat, so they won't want to raise rates yet,
fed income negative raising rates speeds time
It speeds up the time that the Fed will probably think about raising rates and that's negative for fixed-income.
above business expansion fed outlook pointing quite zero
The Philadelphia Fed business outlook index is still above zero in January, pointing to expansion, but the expansion is not quite as broad.
costs generally higher numbers passed production running showing
The PPI numbers generally have been running higher than the CPI numbers, showing that the higher production costs are not being passed on.
activity economic fourth last quarter saw supports view
This supports the view that first-quarter economic activity is much better than what we saw in the fourth quarter of last year.
government growth inflation less saw
This suggests the government saw more real growth and less inflation in the quarter.
door fed leaves offset open rate report sort
This report leaves the door open for a rate cut. There's still uncertainty out there, and as a way to sort of offset the uncertainty, the Fed will do more than it may need to do.
economy federal good news poised slow
We think the economy is poised to slow down and that's good news for the Federal Reserve.
buyers levels looking risen risk willing yields
Yields have risen to levels where buyers looking for yields are willing to take a risk and buy.
consumer good items looks lower news prices reading seeing seen unchanged
The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the nonpetroleum items and it looks like what we're still seeing is lower prices for many consumer items.
good inflation items major news outside problem reading seen unchanged
The good news is that what we've seen is an unchanged reading for the non-petroleum items ... so it doesn't look like we have a major inflation problem outside of oil, which is good for the Fed.