Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley
Stephen Stanley is a Canadian singer-songwriter associated with the band The Lowest of the Low. Stanley also performs as a solo artist, sometimes in collaboration with violinist Carla MacNeil...
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January auto sales were clearly much better than expected. We are on a pace to see a month-to-month increase in the seasonally adjusted sales pace, perhaps to around 17.7 million units or so.
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We know that a flood of Katrina-related claims is coming. The magnitude and the timing are uncertain, but the figures will clearly be boosted sharply very soon.
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The economy is clearly strong right now, and that's what these numbers reflect. In the short term, there's a risk people will pull back on spending, but that depends on how long gas prices stay high, and so far there's not much evidence the consumer is slowing down.
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The economy is clearly advancing nicely right now and it will in our view take more than a 5% funds rate to slow it down.
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The indicators of prices ... are beginning to point more clearly toward inflation pressures.
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While housing demand will probably continue to moderate from the torrid pace seen in the last few years, housing starts should remain well-supported in the coming months, as builders' backlogs remain near record levels and rebuilding along the Gulf Coast will eventually boost activity.
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This report is huge in the big picture, ... With the election over and this good news on jobs we could at last see an unleashing of animal spirits in the economy.
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When both exports and imports are surging, that is generally a sign that the economy is in very good shape. These figures strike me as yet another sign that activity entering 2006 was on a solid footing, not about to slow down substantially, as the consensus believes.
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We think the economy will grow stronger for longer than the market and the Fed do. We look for substantial further tightening to be required.
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The question now is what impact the hurricane has on the economy and for how long.
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What really got everyone's attention was the decline in the unemployment rate.
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We expect productivity growth to moderate, and compensation gains and unit labor costs to pick up. Just another piece of the puzzle that points toward more Fed tightening than the market currently expects.
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This speaks to very robust underlying momentum in the economy, which is one of the reasons why the Fed will have to keep going.
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When the economy's weak, there's always a potential competitor who will undercut you on price, but when everybody's doing decent business, there's not as much urgency on the pricing front. When consumers are mostly employed and their incomes are going up, they're more inclined to accept some price increases.