Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
curve fed longer measured move pace react whether word yield
For all intents and purposes the Fed is going to move at a measured pace whether that word is in there or not. And now, the longer end of the yield curve should react more to Fed moves.
aware fed federal fully funds higher increasing official oil prices recession since
The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
coming conditions consumers spending storm
With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
hear hiring tone
I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.
board caution corporate elevated energy environment flags holiday interest rate rising sending spending yellow
Elevated energy prices, questionable holiday spending and the rising interest rate environment are sending yellow caution flags around many corporate board rooms.
driven fed funds higher hike inflation oil people raising rate stop threat
There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices,
buying generators insurance living outlook people plan protect rather sign smart sounds translate weaker
People buying generators sounds more like a smart insurance plan to protect some of their assets, rather than a sign they're living in fear. It may dampen people's outlook a little bit, but not in a way that would translate into weaker spending.
winter
We are going to have a winter of discontent.
data deeper economic higher inflation last longer piece received showing signs six threatens weeks
Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
creation economy goes job
As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.
anywhere fantasy found good inflation oasis
There's no inflation anywhere to be found in the U.S. economy, and that's good for bonds. It's more than an oasis of prosperity, it's more like Fantasy Island.
caution coming creation diminished economic entire growth guns job month since stellar stick street trend
We caution investors; one month of stellar job creation does not a trend make. And since the entire Street has diminished economic growth projections for 2005, we have to stick to our guns of slower, not stronger, job creation in coming months.
effect fourth heard increase inflation inordinate number price seen supposed third until
We have not seen any inflation yet, but what we have heard is an inordinate number of price increase announcements in the third or fourth quarter, but they were not supposed to take effect until Jan. 1.
cause rapid
The pre-auction announcement speculation was the cause for the rapid sell-off in the 30-year bond,