Richard Yamarone
Richard Yamarone
board caution corporate elevated energy environment flags holiday interest rate rising sending spending yellow
Elevated energy prices, questionable holiday spending and the rising interest rate environment are sending yellow caution flags around many corporate board rooms.
ahead anticipate companies elevated energy higher hire imagine prices
I can't imagine that these energy prices aren't elevated through the winter. We anticipate even higher prices. Companies don't want to hire ahead of uncertainty.
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We are convinced that a large portion of the tax refunds that are scheduled to arrive in consumers' mailboxes in March and April will be dedicated to these exorbitant energy costs. With that, there'll be less money spent on other goods and services.
energy face higher
Americans are not going to be happy, but they now face considerably higher energy prices. That's going to be the norm, not the exception.
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I don't think these high energy prices are going away any time soon. Consumers are pulling back.
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The economy is motoring along and we are indeed creating more than a decent amount of jobs. But there are a number of hurdles that lie in our path of prosperity ? record energy prices and the economic consequences of Hurricane Katrina.
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The problem, and every Fed official is fully aware of this, is that every recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: higher oil prices and an increasing federal funds rate.
coming conditions consumers spending storm
With job-market conditions being what they are, I don't see how consumers will be out there spending up a storm in coming months,
hear hiring tone
I still don't think the tone has changed, ... I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on.
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There's only so much a Fed rate hike can do to thwart an inflation threat that's predominantly driven by oil prices. Raising the fed funds rate won't stop people from speculating about higher oil prices,
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People buying generators sounds more like a smart insurance plan to protect some of their assets, rather than a sign they're living in fear. It may dampen people's outlook a little bit, but not in a way that would translate into weaker spending.
winter
We are going to have a winter of discontent.
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Every piece of economic data we have received over the last six weeks is showing signs of higher inflation that threatens to erode economic growth. The after-shocks of the hurricanes may be longer and deeper than many now believe.
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As the economy goes, so, too, goes job creation.